Hudson, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

025
FXUS61 KCAR 221811
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
211 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the west this evening, then begins
to slowly cross the state from north to south late tonight
through Tuesday evening. High pressure then builds over the
region through Wednesday night, then slides offshore Thursday. A
warm front lifts to the north Thursday night, followed by a
cold front approaching on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Return flow has increased dwpts this afternoon into the 50s for
most areas. Temps have risen into the mid-upr 60s and with warm
advection continuing expected they will reach into the lower
70s in the next 1- 2 hours. Cold front located south of James
Bay and extends into the Arrowhead of MN. Sfc and upper w/wv
will continue to dive south this evening with showers entering
into the North Woods after 21z.
Expect a line of showers ahead of the front to impact the Central
Highlands into eastern Aroostook tonight before moving east
into New Brunswick before daybreak. Expect rainfall to range
from 0.10- 0.15 inches overnight with the front. Best forcing
remains over the north with southerly flow bringing marine layer
into Downeast tonight ahead of the front. Maine layer will
mainly be in the form of low stratus given stronger winds just
off of the surface but have mention of patchy fog as far north
as a Dover to Amity line.
Forcing moves into Canada on Tuesday morning with only isolated to
sctd showers fcst during the daytime hours. Only a few hundredths of
an inch is expected. Front creeps thru the region Tuesday with wave
of low pressure riding up along it late on Tuesday.
Front looks to move far enough south as wave moves up that most of
the rain should fall over the coast and the Gulf of Maine, which
unfortunately leaves Downeast skunked again.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Wednesday and Wednesday Night...
Fairly quiet day/night with a chance of showers mainly south of
Millinocket. Still some uncertainty with rain chances, but
models have been trending a bit drier/further south so we may be
able to further lower PoPs. Temperatures fairly close to
average with mid to upper 60s on Wednesday and 40s Wednesday
night. Mostly clear to partly cloudy in the north, and partly to
mostly cloudy Downeast. Could be patchy fog Wednesday night.
Thursday...
Low level flow switches back to southerly as the next system
approaches. Still a lot of model uncertainty regarding start
time for a potential rain event. Some models/ensembles move in
the rain early morning, while others wait until Thursday
evening. Going with chance PoPs areawide for now during the day
Thursday. Some uncertainty with high temperatures for Thursday
depending on how early the rain gets here. It could reach 70 if
the rain holds off, or it could only get to around 60 if the
rain moves in earlier.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rain likely Thursday night as low pressure passes north of us
moving from southwest to northeast. Not much cool or dry air
behind this system, so we maintain a chance of showers into
Friday. For the system Thursday/Friday, chance of getting a half
inch of rain is around 50 percent, which is the highest chances
we`ve seen in quite a while. Perhaps slight drying Friday night
into Saturday, then another potential system around Saturday
night, but model uncertainty is quite high this far out.
Temperatures Thursday night through Monday look fairly close to
average.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR this evening for all terminals. BGR and BHB look
to diminish to IFR after midnight tonight as marine layer moves
in. IFR conditions likely to be a combination of vsbys and cigs
though cigs likely to take precedence. May see brief LIFR cigs
after 06z before improving to MVFR after 13z Tuesday.
Aroostook terminals should see conditions diminish after 05z to MVFR
in low cigs ahead of a cold front. FVE possibly experience IFR cigs
between 09-15z Tuesday.
Northern terminals improve to VFR by evening. Downeast terminals
improve briefly before MVFR/IFR conditions return late evening with
another round of showers into Wednesday morning.
SHORT TERM:
Wednesday...Mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings, with MVFR more
likely in the morning. NE winds 5-10 kts.
Wednesday Night...VFR early, but patchy fog late with widely
variable conditions where fog occurs. Light winds.
Thursday and Thursday Night...MVFR/IFR developing from west to
east with rain and low clouds, but low confidence in the timing.
If the rain begins early Thursday, all day could be MVFR/IFR,
but if it holds off until Thursday evening, Thursday day could
be VFR. S wind 5-10 kts.
Friday...VFR most likely, with a chance of MVFR. W wind 5-10
kts.
Friday Night and Saturday...Mainly VFR. W wind around 5 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: South winds 5-10kts tonight and Tuesday will become
northerly late Tuesday night. Winds will remain below small craft
levels through tomorrow night. Seas look to approach 5ft over the
far reaches of the outer waters Tuesday morning in southeasterly
swell with periods of 10-12 seconds. Expect seas to remain elevated
throughout the period around 4ft.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas most likely staying below small
craft.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Buster
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Buster/Foisy
Marine...Buster/Foisy

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion