Hoyt, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

338
FXUS64 KTSA 021716
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1216 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1211 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
- Low shower and thunderstorm chances mostly east of I-49 mid
    to late afternoon.
- Mostly dry weather with above normal temperatures into next week.
- Low shower and thunderstorm chances exist toward the early to
    middle of next week, along with cooler temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
A few showers persist around midday across Osage and Pawnee
Counties, although coverage and intensity continue to dwindle. In
general, temperatures are running a few degrees above those at this
time yesterday, with the exception being northern Osage County as a
result of the ongoing showers and associated cloud cover. Given
these trends, temperatures should reach/exceed 90 degrees in much of
eastern Oklahoma and in the Arkansas River Valley, with mid to upper
80s elsewhere. A thunderstorm or two may develop mid to late
afternoon in parts of western Arkansas to the east of I-49, although
development this far west in CAMs is more limited than earlier
depicted. Have nudged POPs upward in this area from the NBM
initialization using a hand-edited version of the short-term blended
guidance. Any activity should diminish by early evening, with
decreasing cloud cover and continued above normal overnight
temperatures expected. The potential for fog continues to look very
isolated, similar to this morning. With only a low chance of
visibilities under a mile in any one locale /per the latest HREF/, a
mention will not be included in the forecast at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Upper level ridging builds more solidly into the region by Friday,
bringing another day of well above normal temperatures and further
decreasing the potential for any rainfall. Troughing in the west
will begin to move toward the region late Friday and into Saturday,
leading to an increase in wind speeds for the weekend. Above normal
temperatures will continue to prevail both Saturday and Sunday,
although a trend toward slightly lower heights on Saturday should
lead to highs a few degrees cooler than those on Friday and also on
Sunday. South to southeasterly winds return all the way to the Gulf
Coast by early next week, allowing for an increase in moisture
especially across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Low
shower and thunderstorm chances will enter the forecast as a result.
A pattern change remains likely by the middle of next week, leading
to a trend toward cooler temperatures and more extensive low shower
and thunderstorm potential beginning Tuesday. Uncertainty exists
during this time frame, but a cold front does look to move into
parts of the forecast area, with far northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas looking to have the best potential.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
similar fog development expected again late tonight in valley
locations of western AR resulting in temporary reductions to
mainly MVFR visibilities at KFYV, KROG. Isolated showers or
storms this afternoon across northwest AR will primarily stay
east of all terminal locations.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   66  89  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   65  90  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   61  89  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   58  86  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   62  85  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   66  88  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   64  87  61  84 /  10  10   0   0
F10   64  89  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   65  87  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion