Howe, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

436
FXUS63 KIWX 212325
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
725 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and storms will redevelop late this afternoon into
  early tonight.
- Strong to possibly severe storms later today may bring locally
  damaging wind gusts, heavy rain and small hail.
- More rain is expected Monday into Monday night. The flood
  threat with this rain is very low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Abundant cloudiness remained over northern Indiana in the wake
of precipitation from earlier today, although clouds were
starting to break up west of I-69. Short wave energy from an
approaching upper level trof had brought these showers with
scattered thunderstorms across the forecast area this morning.
By early afternoon, the activity was lifting rapidly northeast
and should clear the area by 3pm or 4pm. Have made some major
forecast updates to greatly reduce rain chances late this
afternoon. More showers are expected to develop and move into
northern Indiana tonight as the upper low and trof lingers over
the area. The latest HRRR has activity redeveloping after 01Z
(9pm EDT). Periods of showers and isolated storms at times
should continue into early Tuesday. Rainfall amounts through
Tuesday night should rain from 1.00" to 1.50". Given the longer
duration of the rain and relatively low amounts expected,
flooding is not anticipated.
Rain chances will continue through the upcoming weekend as the
upper level trof transitions into a closed low, and then to an
open trof by late Friday. This pattern will feature cloudy skies
and abundant showers. A thunderstorm is possible at times, but
severe weather is not anticipated later this week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 724 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Models tend to do very badly with forecasting rain and storms in
these weakly forced environments without succinct shortwaves. We do
have a low level jet to work with though and that`ll help storms to
continue with the potential to produce heavy rain and damaging
winds. Placement of rain comes with low confidence in this setup,
but hi-res models keep it going at night. Will go with a tempo group
for MVFR flight conditions during the first 4 hours of the period
with some hope that intensity of storms die down after sunset.
There`s also a chance that showers/storms reinvigorate around
sunrise for both terminals but FWA is earlier so will use a Prob30
group for that chance. After that, a strong vort max moves northeast
so that it moves in the proximity of FWA during the mid to late
morning hours. There is some question about if the resultant
rainfall will be convective and therefore be more scattered or if it
will be more widespread. At this point, will use a -shra group, but
future shifts will want to reassess this potential again.
Otherwise, southerly winds become light tonight and acquire a
southwest trajectory on Monday. Those winds on Monday look to stay
weaker than 10 kts.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Roller

NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion