Houston, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

366
FXUS63 KARX 201852
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
152 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend with
  localized heavy rain at times.
- Storm chances continue Monday with concerns for strong storms
  affecting the central CONUS.
- Temperatures stay near normal with highs in the low to mid 70s
  through much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Periodic Showers and Storms Through the Weekend:
The upper level low that has been giving us showers and storms over
the last few days is gradually moving off to the northeast.
Currently, the low is situated over over the CWA. With this location
and increasing low level lapse rates, the best instability will
build in central Wisconsin. While some instability builds in
southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa, the higher values (1000 to
1500 J/kg of MLCAPE) are located in central Wisconsin. As a result,
scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon and
evening. With the upper level low overhead, there may be some
potential for some funnels to form this afternoon with light
southerly winds in the lowest 10 to 15kft. The one caveat to this is
that a boundary would need to be present to help increase the funnel
potential. Another shortwave moves down Sunday afternoon increasing
shower and storm potential later Sunday afternoon into the overnight
period. Overall rain amounts through the weekend are generally less
than 0.4 inches. Locally higher amounts of up to 1 inch will be
possible especially in central Wisconsin and in portions of southern
Minnesota.
Storm Potential Next Week:
A shortwave moves into the Upper Midwest as a frontal boundary sits
near the Upper Midwest River Valley. This will allow instability to
build in during the afternoon. While low level shear is decent (25
to 30 kts), low level lapse rates are not impressive, mostly around
6 C/km. Better instability and forcing remains to the south of the
CWA. Despite this, machine learning severe probabilities give a 5 to
15% chance for severe weather to occur, mainly south of I-90. This
will be something to watch as we get through the weekend.
For the rest of the week, ensemble guidance continues to show a
trough digging down into the central CONUS. Over the past couple of
days, ensembles have brought this trough further south,
lowering our precipitation chances (15 to 25%) to just northeast
Iowa and southern Wisconsin. If this trend continues a mostly
dry week could occur. Temperatures over the next 7 days are
staying mainly in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
As diurnal heating occurs this afternoon, additional showers and
storms will develop along converging outflow boundaries and
differential heating boundaries. There is a convergent boundary
already over central Wisconsin. This boundary will likely start
up first and additional areas will develop from mid afternoon
into the evening.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Boyne

NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion