Hoopa, California Weather Forecast Discussion

913
FXUS66 KEKA 191947
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1247 PM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms will
continue to cross the area through Saturday afternoon. Clearer and
drier weather will begin to return Sunday and build through next
Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A strong area of low pressure offshore has
pulled tropical moisture northward and generally promoted scattered
showers all across the area over the past 24 hours. Rainfall amounts
have been spotty, generally varying from 0.1 to 0.3 inches with
showers moving from southeast to the northwest. Some showers have
briefly generated lightning even at the immediate coast.
Showers will mos likely continue through this evening with
additional accumulation up to around 0.1 inches. Moisture and cloud
cover will begin to decrease Saturday as low pressure wings south of
the area, though there will again be potential (35% chance) of
showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon particularly for
the southern half of the area. Drier air and clearer skies will
begin to build more broadly Sunday as northwest wind comes to
dominate the area.
There is high confidence that high pressure will at least briefly
arch over the area next Monday and Tuesday, allowing interior highs
to crest back into the 90s and for a weak, diurnal marine layer to
form along shore. There is much great forecast uncertainty by mid
next week. The majority of models show a cutoff low meandering into
southern California. The impacts of this motion are more uncertain.
While cooler temperature and greater cloud cover are a near
certainty, there is wide disagreement for rain potential. While the
low will pull up moisture form the south, the general northeast flow
around the low will not be favorable for widespread wetting rain.
And showers that do form will be most likely around the rim of
Sacramento Valley where the wind best aligns with topography.
Broadly speaking, there is a 30 to 40% chance of Wetting rain in
southern Mendocino and Lake Counties with a less than 10% chance
further north. The vast majority of models suggest a cooler and more
moist pattern for the end of the month, with long range predictions
of above normal Precipitation. /JHW
&&
.AVIATION...Considerable variability and uncertainty exists for this
18Z TAF cycle as mid level moisture from the remnants of a tropical
disturbance spreads over the area. Vicinity training thunderstorms
are currently flowing offshore over the Humboldt Bay Region and is
expected to continue through the morning.VFR cigs around 8-10kft
with period IFR conditions are generally expected at coastal
terminals. Isolated high based thunderstorms are likely as tropical
moisture continues to spread into the area through the day. Latent
heating may yield a few more early morning storms giving way to
solar heating  as destabilization creates stronger, deep, and moist
convection. Greater coverage of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes
and perhaps heavy rain showers are expected Friday afternoon and
evening. Erratic and gusty winds are possible with storms as are
degraded visibilites in rain cores. Stratus layer near and along the
coast is not following many models, yet minimal clearing is
expected. Rapid fluctuations between IFR and VFR may occur for
coastal terminals. Coastal stratus should settle in firmly Friday
night. Inland terminals can expect OVC-BKN ceilings of 15-20 kft AGL
with variable winds as the remains of Tropical Storm Mario flow over
interior CA.
&&
.MARINE...Large steep waves will steadily subside today from the
inner waters outward as northerlies decrease. A southerly surge of
gentle breezes is expected to develop across the inners. Isolated
thunderstorms and lightning strikes with perhaps gusty and erratic
winds will continue to be possible today.
Winds and seas will ease considerably by Saturday, followed by a
slight increase of northerlies and short period waves Sunday into
Monday. A NW swell of 5ft around 12 seconds is expected with winds
between 10-20kts across all the waters.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Tropical moisture is continuing to stream across the
area. Show have moved from southeast to northwest, dropping spotty
wetting rain and some isolated thunderstorms. There have been
reports of some lightning started fires, though otherwise moist and
subdued fire weather conditions will inhibit rapid spread. There will
continue to be a risk (20% chance) of isolated showers thunderstorms
through Saturday afternoon with the greatest risk over NE Trinity
County and in the Yolla Bollys. A moderate warming and drying trend
will build in early next week with highs returning to the mid 90s.
/JHW
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ450.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for
     PZZ470-475.
&&
$$
NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.
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https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

NWS EKA Office Area Forecast Discussion