Hoolehua, Hawaii Weather Forecast Discussion

765
FXHW60 PHFO 021327
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
327 AM HST Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Gentle to moderate east southeast winds will continue through
Friday night in response to an approaching cold front in the North
Central Pacific, allowing localized daytime sea breezes and
overnight land breezes through Friday night. Moderate trades may
build back this weekend into early next week as a new high builds
north of the state.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Gentle to moderate east southeast winds will continue through
Friday night in response to an approaching cold front in the North
Central Pacific. 12Z soundings show conditions aloft remain
stable with a 7 to 8 kft inversion across the state. Infrared
satellite and radar show low clouds and a few showers tracking in
a southeast to northwest direction this morning occasionally
impacting windward slopes. Most showers are passing north and
south of the islands likely from downstream partial blockage from
the Big Island. Showers will taper off through the late morning,
while mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies prevail for leeward
locations.
The light wind flow and Big Island blockage will allow localized
sea breezes and interior cloud build ups and showers over the
islands this afternoon. Land breezes will clear out the islands
tonight, followed by a diurnal repeat Friday and Friday night.
Downstream convergence along the leeward sides of island mountains
could produce plumes of clouds and showers that extend west to
northwest from each island, and could anchor showers over windward
and southeast sides of the smaller islands at times overriding
the land breeze suppression.
Guidance indicates that easterly trades will build back into the
region this weekend and early next week as a new high develops
and strengthens far north of the state. However, global models
differ significantly regarding the development of a trough
northeast of the islands by the middle of next week. This could
cause significant differences in the wind and shower regimes near
the end of the seven day forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate trades will persist and gradually veer ESE tomorrow into
Friday. Low clouds and showers will mainly focus over windward
and mountain areas, particularly overnight into the early morning
hours. The slightly veered trade wind flow may allow for sea
breezes to develop across leeward areas each afternoon, bringing
clouds and isolated showers to those areas. MVFR conditions will
be possible in any showers through the period. Otherwise, VFR will
prevail.
No AIRMETs are in effect. AIRMET Sierra may be needed across some
windward areas tonight if shower coverage becomes sufficient.
Kilauea eruption episode 34 ended this morning at 7:03 AM HST.
The potential for ash to impact aviation has diminished, so VA
SIGMET Whiskey has been cancelled.
&&
.MARINE...
Surface high pressure northeast of the waters will continue to
drift east through the end of the week as a trough passes far
north of the waters. The current gentle to locally fresh trade
winds will veer east southeast and trend lighter through Saturday
giving way to localized land and seabreezes over leeward waters.
High pressure will build in from the northwest allowing moderate
to locally fresh trade winds to return this weekend and hold through
the forecast period.
A small medium to long period northwest (300 deg) swell from
Tropical cyclone Neoguri has begun to fill in early this morning,
will peak later today before declining through Friday. A moderate,
medium period north northwest (330 deg) swell generated from the
current low tracking across the northwest Pacific is expected to
fill in on Saturday, peak Sunday just below High Surf Advisory
(HSA) criteria for north facing shores, and slowly fade into
early next week. Another small medium to long period swell from
the northwest (320 deg) is expected to fill in Monday, peak
Tuesday and decline through the middle of next week.
The current small, medium period southwest (210 deg) swell has
filled in overnight and will peak today, before fading Friday.
Another small long period southwest (210 deg) swell is expected to
rise late Friday through Saturday before declining into early
next week. Surf along east- facing shores will remain below
average into early next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Wind speeds will remain below critical fire weather thresholds
for the next seven days. Temperature inversion heights across the
state will range from 7,000 to 8,500 feet.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Foster
AVIATION...Ahue
MARINE...Shigesato

NWS HFO Office Area Forecast Discussion