Hookerton, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

715
FXUS62 KMHX 261859
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
259 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will approach from the west this evening eventually
stalling across Eastern NC tonight. This stalled frontal
boundary will move little through early next week bringing a
prolonged period of unsettled weather. As we get into next week
we will be monitoring the progress of Humberto and Invest 94L.
Strong high pressure looks to build in from the north by about
mid week next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Friday...
Key Messages
- Increased risk of thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty
   winds this evening
- Continued risk of showers and thunderstorms overnight
Latest analysis depicts a slow moving cold front draped
northeast-to-southwest across central NC. This feature is
forecast to continue to push slowly eastward through the rest of
this afternoon, eventually reaching ENC later this evening.
Along the coast, sea breeze is also making its way inland.
Aloft, a subtle shortwave trough is lifting northeastward out of
the GA vicinity and is forecast to bring enhanced lift aloft to
the area. Most CAMs are in agreement that combination of
improved lift aloft and enhanced convergence at the surface
should support scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon across ENC.
With PWATs generally around 1.75-2.0", expect any shower or
storm that develops to be an efficient rainmaker. While storm
motions will likely be quick, any training storms may bring isolated
flash flooding across urban, small stream, and poor drainage
areas. HREF LPMM values continue to show widespread 0.5-1.5" of
rain across the area with max values closer to 2-4". Given
faster storm motions, marginally drier air in the low-levels,
and recent dry conditions, expect any flash flooding potential
to remain isolated. Thus, WPC has placed the area under a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for excessive rainfall today.
Regarding severe potential, deep layer shear is forecast to be
around 25kt, which should support some storm organization amidst
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. The shear/instability combo appears
supportive of gusty winds (40-50 mph) in the strongest storms.
Aforementioned front eventually stalls either near or just off
the coast tonight and moves little. Guidance differs on the
evolution of showers and thunderstorms overnight, with some CAMs
indicating conditions will dry out somewhat after dark while
other models show isolated to widely scattered shower persisting
until after midnight. Thus, have largely kept slight chance to
chance PoPs across the area overnight. Chances then increase
again, especially along the southeastern coastline, around dawn
tomorrow morning as a second shortwave trough traverses the
area.
With ample cloud cover, lows will be generally in the low-70s
across much of the area tonight. Guidance also indicates
potential for patchy fog/low stratus overnight, especially for
areas that see rainfall today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...
Positively tilted upper level trough stretching from the
interior NE to the Deep South will eventually take on a more
neutral to slightly negative tilt as it pushes eastward across
the Southeast US before eventually cutting off and retrograding
westward across the Tennessee River Valley vicinity. At the
surface, cold front will remain stalled near the coast through
Saturday. This will likely promote periods of scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms across ENC. While the
severe weather threat is expected to remain very low, forecast
vertical profiles show deep, largely saturated profiles with
PWATs of around 2". Narrow CAPE profiles will also favor
efficient rainfall processes, so showers and thunderstorms will
be capable of heavy rainfall. Deep layer flow will leader to
marginally quicker storm motions, so flash flood risk will be
greater where any training storms set up. WPC currently has most
of ENC in a slight (2/5) risk for flash flooding. Given cloud
cover and stalled front offshore, temps will be cooler, with
highs in the low 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...
Key Messages:
- Unsettled pattern is expected across ENC through the period,
   with above climo precip chances
- Monitoring the evolution of Invest 94L and Humberto over the
   next several days for any indirect or direct impacts to ENC
   next week
There remains average to above average confidence in the large
scale upper level pattern through Sat/Sun with lower confidence
later in the period towards early next week. As a result, have
leaned on more of the ensemble and AI guidance later in the
forecast period in order to focus on the overall pattern, and
hash out specifics as we get closer to next week. Biggest
challenge in the long term will be the eventual track of Invest
94L and Humberto.
Sunday into Thu...Higher than avg uncertainty expected in the
forecast Sun onwards given very complicated upper level pattern
around the Eastern Seaboard which leads into the big question
which is what will happen with Invest 94L and Humberto early
next week. Will go over the upper level pattern and challenges
and then potential solutions below.
Upper level cutoff low will meander around the Southeast and
TN River Valley through early next week. Have followed recent
trends in the AI and ECWMF ensemble guidance which shows the
upper low pushing NE`wards early next week and exiting out to
sea by midweek as another trough dives SE`wards from the
Canadian Maritimes and provides an escape route for this upper
low out ahead of an upper level ridge to the west which will be
approaching at the end of the period. Key challenge here will be
the eventual track of the upper low as models notoriously have
a hard time handling this type of pattern and this low could
have an impact on the eventual track of Invest 94L. Otherwise
temps stay about or just below avg through the remainder of the
long term given expected ample cloud cover and widespread
precip. At the surface, stalled front remains over the coast
through early next week before dissipating keeping things
unsettled through at least Tue with daily chances for showers
and storms across the region. Strong high pressure ridging
begins to build down across the region as well on Tue/Wed from
the north and west. At the same time Humberto and Invest 94L
look to be tracking NW to N on Sun and Mon with Invest 94L
potentially getting organized enough after it departs Hispaniola
earlier in the weekend to develop into a TD/TS around the
Bahamas. Humberto looks to continue off to the north and
eventually the NE closer to Bermuda as an upper trough leaves an
escape route for the system. The evolution of Invest 94L is
where the greatest uncertainty comes into play as multiple
features will play a role in the eventual track of the
disturbance.
Multiple solutions remain in place for 94. NHC is still
suggesting high chances of a tropical system becoming organized
enough to warrant declaring the system a depression over the
next day or so. Bulk of guidance spawns a circulation and
carries it Nward toward SECONUS coast, most of which toward SC.
As it nears the coast however, models diverge greatly. Some show
a curve NWward, others Eward while others stall it in place
just off the coast to meander and interact with Humberto. Of
note, is certain model which was internally considered as "worst
case scenario" has been shifting Sward through recent runs.
Uncertainty will diminish once a circulation actually develops
over the next 48hrs and models will be able better resolve the
system and utilize the aircraft recon data as well as
supplemental sounding data occuring across SECONUS. The key
point right now is both systems are expected to bring some level
of impacts to the area, though specifics are uncertain at this
time. Tropical moisture will be spreading over the area, and
swell will be increasing. Will continue to monitor for specifics
over the next few days.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 200 PM Friday...
Key Messages
- TSRA impacts possible today
- MVFR TO IFR cigs possible tonight
Scattered to potentially widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity expected late this afternoon through at least the early
overnight hours ahead of a slow moving cold front to the west of
ENC and the sea breeze currently making its way inland along
the coast. Greatest concentration for showers and storms across
ENC will likely be where the sea breeze and front intersect this
afternoon, bringing the potential for sub-VFR conditions to
ENC. Guidance differs on exact timing of showers and thunder
storms this evening, but generally expect coverage to increase
over the next 1-3 hours. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be
on the decrease as we get into late tonight, but some
uncertainty remains as to how long ongoing activity will persist
into the overnight hours. Winds will become light and variable
behind the front tonight, and guidance shows potential for
patchy fog and/or low stratus to bring MVFR/IFR conditions to
TAF sites tonight after ~03-06Z. Expect fog/low stratus to
linger through the mid-to-late morning hours before VFR
conditions return. Sunday afternoon will then see increasing
shower/thunderstorm chances again.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 230 PM Friday...
Key Messages
- Unsettled pattern will bring unfavorable flying conditions
   to ENC into early next week.
A cold front is forecast to stall across the region this
weekend. This front will then move little through early next
week. As a result, will likely see an extended period with a
higher likelihood of sub-VFR conditions across ENC as scattered
to widespread showers and thunderstorms develop across the
area. Ceilings and vis will likely be reduced within any rain
and thunderstorm activity while outside of this activity periods
of VFR may be found between precip chances. Still some
uncertainty with the track and intensity of next potential
tropical low, but there is potential for gusty winds and heavy
rain early next week.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 200 PM Friday...
Key Messages
- Risk of thunderstorm impacts Friday/Friday night
South to southwest winds at 10-15kts are currently noted across
our waters with a few isolated gusts of 15-20 kts. As a slow
moving cold front currently to our west nears the coast and
stalls tonight, expect the pressure gradient to relax some
allowing winds to become light and southeasterly, lowering down
to 5-10 kts overnight. Seas of 2-4 ft at 6-8s are expected
through Friday night.
Increased risk for scattered to potentially widespread showers
and thunderstorms across area waters this evening into the
overnight hours as the cold front moves into the area. Locally
enhanced winds and seas are possible within the strongest storms
that impact our waters.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 230 PM Friday...
Key Message
- Deteriorating marine conditions expected as early as Sun/Mon
Cold front is expected to stall near the coast this weekend.
This is forecast to bring a prolonged period of scattered
showers and thunderstorms to the waters. A few storms could be
strong in nature resulting in locally enhanced winds and seas.
Sat seas remain at 2-3 ft while the winds back to a S-SE at
5-15 kts. As we get into Sun and Mon, high pressure ridge begins
to build in from the north and with Invest 94L and TC Humberto
off to the south and east expect the gradient to tighten some
allowing winds to gradually increase to 10-15 kts on Sun and
then 15-25 kts on Mon. Winds will gradually become NE`rly by Mon
as well. At the same time, seas across the coastal waters will
build, with 3-5 ft seas now forecast by Sun and then 4-7 ft seas
by Mon. Still quite a bit of uncertainty with track and
intensity of the next potential tropical low, but continued to
increase winds early to mid next week with potential for strong
NE winds and dangerous seas. At the very least this will begin
our period of unsettled marine conditions with at the bare
minimum, SCA conditions currently forecast with high potential
for gales.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 PM Friday...Long period swell from distant TC
Humberto is forecast to reach ENC beaches as early as Monday,
then peak Tuesday and Wednesday. Swell impacts may last much of
the upcoming week, and include dangerous rip currents, large
breaking waves, and the potential for ocean overwash and wave
runup impacts. In the wake of the tropical systems, a period of
strong NEerly/onshore winds associated with a cold front and
building high pressure in its wake may heighten impacts along
the coast, while also increasing the risk for water level rises
on the inside, including the Pamlico Sound and areas along the
Neuse later in the work- week. Stay tuned through the week for
updates on the areas of greatest impact, and the magnitude of
those impacts.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...CQD/ZC
MARINE...CQD/ZC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion