Homestead Air Force Base, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

344
FXUS62 KMFL 010629
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
229 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Dangerous marine and beach conditions continue through the rest
   of the week and into the weekend. Life-threatening rip
   currents, high surf with at least 6-9 foot breaking waves, and
   beach erosion expected.
- More active weather pattern develops late this week and will
   last through the weekend. Specific rainfall forecasts and other
   details will be outlined as they become more clear in the next
   day or two.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
There will be some level of moisture return today as near-surface
flow and low level flow turns back to a northeasterly direction by
the late morning and early afternoon. In return, some extra
scattered showers are expected today across the region with perhaps
a couple of thunderstorms. Plenty of dry air will remain present in
the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, but with increasing
moisture today cannot completely rule out a couple rogue
thunderstorms unlike yesterday. Nevertheless, convective growth will
be minimized again today due to the dry air aloft. PoPs are
generally 30-40% today with east coast locations at 40-50%.
Heading into Thursday, a more active pattern begins to set up as
shortwave troughing over the Gulf will advect into the Florida
Peninsula. This will provide necessary forcing for ascent for
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday while also some deeper
moisture return occurs. As a result, shower and thunderstorm
coverage could become much more widespread. Main concern is likely
going to just be some heavier downpours and frequent lightning as
QPF totals are only expected around 0.5-1" and 90th percentile
values are 2-3" for the 24-hour period covering Thursday. This would
not be enough to pose widespread flooding concerns, but a couple
isolated areas experiencing localized flooding can never be
completely ruled.
High temperatures today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s across
South Florida. These will likely fall a few degrees on Thursday to
the mid 80s near the Lake O region and upper 80s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Ensembles continue to show the previously mentioned complex weather
pattern setting up for the end of the week and this weekend.
Currently, an Omega-Block ridge is set up over the Midwestern United
States. Troughs of low pressure will set up on both sides of the
blocking setup and an additonal shortwave trough develops over the
deep south states and the Gulf just south of the ridge axis. This
shortwave trough will act to help break down the strong high
pressure while also advecting into the South Florida region, but the
high pressure ridge will still maintain most of its strength and
stretch across most of the eastern United States. As a result, low
pressure centers that form via the shortwave trough will essentially
become locked in place and not able to move much as the flow is
mostly blocked. Thus, this will create a setup with continuous
energy advecting across the region for showers and thunderstorms to
develop. Additionally, South Florida will be in the easterly flow
region around the northeast U.S. ridge at least through Saturday,
creating a steady stream of deeper moisture advection. The ridge and
surface high pressure in the northeast U.S. is finally expected to
break down heading into early next week as deeper troughing forms
over Canada and begins to weaken the ridge plus push it offshore.
All things considered, this pattern is likely to lead to a wet end
to the week and the weekend as well. Potential QPF will depend on
several different factors and thus will change quite a bit in the
short term, so once details become better defined in the coming days
then total rainfall estimates will be outlined. The tail end of the
forecast period early next week is still highly uncertain at this
time, but guidance is hinting at a return to a more typical wet
season pattern with easterly flow around surface high pressure in
the western Atlantic and moderate rain chances.
Daily high temperatures each day are expected to be in the upper 80s
with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Winds are expected to shift to the NE around 10 kts for the east
coast terminals today with W winds at KAPF. Some scattered SHRA
expected to develop today with VCSH as a result for all sites.
There is a chance for a couple rogue TS but chances not high
enough to mention at this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A moderate northeasterly breeze is expected across the local waters
for the rest of the week. Hazardous seas are expected to continue
for the Atlantic waters over the next few days as ongoing swell
continues behind Hurricane Imelda. Seas will range from 6-9 feet
today and are expected to rise further for Friday and this weekend.
Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic
waters through late Friday night.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A high risk for rip currents continues across all Atlantic beaches
through mid-week and into the late week period as breezy onshore
winds and swell occur as a result of Hurricane Imelda passing in the
western Atlantic waters. This elevated risk could persist through
the weekend.
In addition, surf heights rise to 7-10 feet for the Palm Beaches for
the same aforementioned reasons beginning late today and lasting
into the end of the week and potentially the weekend. These large
breaking waves can be extremely dangerous, thus caution is advised
if entering the water for the next few days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  76  87  76 /  50  50  80  60
West Kendall     91  75  87  75 /  50  40  80  50
Opa-Locka        91  76  88  75 /  50  40  80  60
Homestead        90  75  87  75 /  50  40  80  60
Fort Lauderdale  89  76  86  75 /  50  50  80  60
N Ft Lauderdale  89  77  87  76 /  50  40  80  60
Pembroke Pines   92  77  89  76 /  50  40  80  60
West Palm Beach  88  76  85  75 /  50  50  70  50
Boca Raton       89  76  87  75 /  50  50  70  60
Naples           91  75  90  74 /  40  40  80  40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ168-172-
     173.
High Surf Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Sunday
     for FLZ168.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-670.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ651-671.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Redman

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion