Holt, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

604
FXUS64 KMOB 041745
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1245 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Now through Friday...
An upper level trough has organized over the north-central and
northeastern Gulf coast. A surface ridge over the Appalachians
continues to strengthen and build south over the Southeast, creating
a tight pressure gradient along the northern Gulf coast into the
coming week. Most of the forecast area will be rain free today
through tonight as drier northerly air moves south over the
Southeast on the west side of the surface ridge, the exception being
along and south of the coast. An upper ridge builds along the East
Coast, shifting the upper trough west, and rotating the Appalachians
surface ridge clockwise, along with shifting it east over the
Atlantic. This position will direct more Gulf moisture inland over
the Southeast. Add in passing shortwave energy over the Southeast
and precipitable h20 levels rising above 2.2" over most of the
forecast area by Sunday, more of the forecast area sees
precipitation Sunday into Sunday night. Highest PoPs still remain
closer to the coast, with better dynamics and instability available.
The East Coast upper ridge shifts west over the Southeast, bringing
dry northwesterly upper flow back to the region, and shifting
precipitation offshore by Thursday. Shortwave energy moves around
the upper ridge the end of the coming week, with a weak surface cold
front moving south over the southeast, ushering in a drier airmass
in the process.
High temperatures a bit above seasonal norms are are expected
Saturday and Sunday (low to mid 80s). High temperatures rebound in
the coming week as upper subsidence increases from the passing upper
ridge, topping out in the mid 80s to around 90 Wednesday. For the
latter half of the week, high temperatures drop a bit, but remain
above seasonal norms. Low temperatures remain above seasonal
norms, with mid 60s to around 70 expected.
Moderate to strong easterly flow along the northern Gulf coast will
bring a High Risk of Rip Currents into the coming week. With surf
heights averaging 5 feet into Sunday, a High Surf Advisory has been
issued for the period. The risk of Rip Currents drop to moderate by
Monday, remaining so into mid week.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
VFR conditions are expected to continue through this evening. By
the early morning hours rain will develop over the northern Gulf
and will slowly spread northward. Flight categories should begin
to reduce to MVFR or IFR by the mid to late morning hours as
heavier rainfall, and possibly a few thunderstorms, move in.
Northeasterly to easterly winds of around 10 knots, with gusts to
around 20 knots, will continue through the period. /96
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
A surface ridge builds south over the Appalachians into the
weekend, bringing moderate to strong easterly winds to near shore
and open Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for
through the weekend, with a possibility of being extended longer.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  80  70  83  69  86  69  88 /  50  70  60  60  20  30  10  20
Pensacola   72  81  72  84  73  86  72  86 /  50  70  60  50  20  30  10  20
Destin      72  83  72  85  73  85  72  86 /  40  60  50  50  20  30  10  20
Evergreen   68  83  68  87  68  89  67  90 /  10  40  30  40  10  20  10  20
Waynesboro  66  80  67  83  67  86  67  87 /  10  40  30  40  10  20  10  20
Camden      67  83  67  85  67  87  67  88 /  10  30  30  30  10  10  10  20
Crestview   68  82  69  85  69  86  67  88 /  20  60  40  50  10  20  10  10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ631-
     632.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.
&&
$$
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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion