Hightower Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

459
FXUS64 KBMX 071113
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
613 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A weak surface low located over Arkansas is helping promote showers
across the western third of Central Alabama during the early morning
hours. The surface low will be overtaken by a cold front sweeping
across the Plains later today as the front works southeastward.
Shower activity will gradually affect more of the central and
northeastern counties throughout the day, as the front begins
approaching from the north. A few isolated thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon as shower coverage expands. Rain amounts
will be limited, however. Highest totals will be across northwestern
counties, where rainfall is already ongoing.
As the front works south of the area by Wednesday, some CAMs hint at
the possibility of redevelopment in southeastern counties by
Wednesday afternoon. Have included a 30% rain chance south of the I-
85 corridor, which should end by sunset.
12
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A slight cooldown is expected toward the end of the week, with 70s
to low 80s Thursday and area-wide 70s Friday. Higher terrain areas
of east-central Alabama may be in the upper 60s to low 70s both
days. Slight rain chances are currently forecast for areas south of
I-85 on Thursday.
The end of the extended looks dry, and rain chances earlier in the
forecast period will do little to halt emerging or worsening drought
conditions across different parts of the region. With little relief
in sight from a rainfall standpoint, drought and fire danger is
likely to continue, if not worsen, through next week.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
Patches of MVFR ceilings were impacting terminals at times this
morning, along with scattered SHRA development. Ceilings are
forecast to mix out to VFR category by 14z, with scattered showers
and perhaps a few storms developing by this afternoon. With low
chances for showers to move across the terminals, have gone with
PROB30s in the forecast as opposed to TEMPO groups at this time.
Winds will remain light today, generally 10 knots or less from the
southeast. VFR conditions will prevail through most of the rest of
the period, with lower ceilings possible once again moving into
northern and western Alabama by 12z Wednesday morning.
56/GDG
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Rain chances are in the forecast today through Wednesday. However,
widespread wetting rainfall is not expected. Any rainfall amounts
will be too light to mitigate the worsening drought. RH values
should remain above 50% each afternoon through Thursday. Winds today
will be generally southerly up to 8-10 mph. Outdoor burning remains
highly discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     83  65  82  60 /  40  40  20   0
Anniston    83  68  82  61 /  30  30  20  10
Birmingham  85  68  82  62 /  40  40  20   0
Tuscaloosa  86  68  85  60 /  40  30  10   0
Calera      86  68  85  62 /  30  30  20   0
Auburn      85  68  84  65 /  10  20  30  10
Montgomery  87  70  86  66 /  20  20  20  10
Troy        85  68  86  65 /  20  10  30  10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...56/GDG

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion