Heizer, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

772
FXUS63 KICT 012333
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
633 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few isolated showers/thunderstorms persisting through tonight
  and Thursday morning.
- Above average temperatures persist through Sunday or Monday,
  with a potential cool down thereafter, although uncertainty
  surrounding timing and magnitude of cool down remains high.
- Increasing chances for off-and-on showers/thunderstorms by
  Sunday evening, and persisting into next week, but uncertainty
  surrounding timing and placement of showers/storms remains
  high.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
Lift ahead of an approaching shortwave in concert with weak
isentropic ascent on eastern fringe of warmer mid-level temperatures
is continuing to support a smattering of showers/storms over mainly
central KS. Thinking this activity will continue to wane as the
afternoon progresses.
By later tonight and persisting into Thursday morning, thinking a
similar setup will take shape a bit further east, with a smattering
of hit-or-miss showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, mainly east
of Kingman-Lyons-Lincoln line, and along/west of the Flint Hills.
Meager shear/buoyancy will prevent strong or severe storms. Activity
may tend to be a bit more isolated tonight and Thursday AM compared
to current activity, given subsidence in wake of the departing
shortwave.
As we head into the weekend and next week, model consensus continues
to support increasing western CONUS upper troughing, with various
shortwaves ejecting out of the base of this trough onto Mid-America.
At the same time, a strong cold frontal zone is forecast to approach
from the north, possibly stalling somewhere across the region given
the persistent western upper troughing.
Increasing lift, moisture, and instability associated with
these features should support increasing chances for off-and-on
showers/thunderstorms across the region by Sunday evening and
persisting through next week. Uncertainty remains high this far
out in the forecast, especially as it pertains to ejecting
shortwaves and cold frontal timing/placement, with a wide range
of solutions amongst the global model suite. Stay tuned as we
refine forecast details in the coming days.
TEMPERATURES:
Per model consensus, above average atmospheric heights/thickness
will support continued above average temperatures through Sunday and
possibly Monday. Thereafter, the speed/placement of the approaching
strong cold front is in question, with a wide range of possible
solutions amongst the global model suite. The latest GFS keeps the
front mostly north of the forecast area, which would support mostly
above average temperatures through much of next week. In contrast,
the ECMWF and Canadian solutions continue to progress the front
through the region, supporting near to below average temperatures
through at least the first half of next week. Given the strength of
the cool high pressure approaching from the north, am tending to
side with the cooler guidance, Stay tuned as we refine forecast
details in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions for all sites this evening. Breezy southeasterly
winds are on the downward trend and should dip below 10 knots
between 00-03Z. Winds are then expected to increase again over
10 knots after 15Z Thursday. Isolated precip chances between
06-18Z, but probabilities remain too low to include with PROB30
groups. Any impacts would remain minimal.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...AMD

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion