Hayes Center, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

903
FXUS63 KLBF 290515
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1215 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will remain well above average for the work week
  with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Temperatures are
  expected to cool back into the 70s for next weekend.
- Expect breezy southerly winds to continue through Tuesday with
  wind gusts up to 30 MPH.
- Little to no precipitation is expected this work week. Meager
  chances for precipitation return next weekend.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
H5 analysis this morning had broad zonal flow across the southern
half of Canada. Low pressure was located over the Gulf of
Alaska, as well as a weaker low over eastern portions of Hudson
Bay. South of this zonal flow, a strong shortwave was centered
along the California/Arizona border. Another shortwave trough
was located over the Appalachians from West Virginia, south-
southwest into Georgia. Between these two shortwaves, ridging
was present from south Texas, north-northeast into the upper
Mississippi Valley. At the surface this afternoon, high pressure
was located over the upper Mississippi Valley with a surface
trough present from eastern Wyoming, south along the front range
of Colorado. Southerly winds extended east of the trough across
western and north central Nebraska this afternoon. As of 2 PM
CT, winds were gusting as high as 27 MPH at Valentine.
Temperatures ranged from 81 degrees at O`Neill and Ogallala, to
85 degrees at Thedford.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The shortwave trough, currently over western Arizona, will
transition to the east- northeast overnight, approaching the
Four Corners by 12z Monday. Downstream of this feature, a
surface trough will persist from eastern Wyoming south to the
front range of Colorado. East of this feature, a decent pressure
gradient will remain in place, allowing southerly winds to
persist through the early evening hours. NAM and GFS Bufkit
soundings indicate inversion development by mid evening, so
winds at the surface will quickly decouple. Just off the
surface, the latest near range model solns indicate the
development of a 30 to 40 KT low level jet tonight, extending
along a corridor from far southwestern into north central
Nebraska. No doubt this will lead to some low level wind shear
issues for aviation overnight-more about that in the aviation
section below. As for lows tonight, with the expected decoupling
and dry air in place, believe the NBM remains too warm on its
forecast lows. Will trend these temperatures more toward the
cooler MET/MAV numbers as they have been closer to actual lows
the last couple of nights. Breezy southerly winds will develop
once again on Monday, thanks to a persistent surface trough just
off to the west of the forecast area. Bufkit soundings are
indicative of wind gust potential up to 30 MPH Monday afternoon.
With good mixing and H85 temps in the low 20sC, highs in the
lower to middle 80s are probable Monday afternoon. Late in the
day, a lead shortwave in association with the shortwave trough
over the four corners, will ride north across the central
Rockies. Some of this mid level forcing may make it as far as
eastern Colorado early Monday evening. Some of the CAMS develop
isolated convection over eastern Colorado early evening, lifting
this activity north into the southern panhandle, before it
dissipates after sunset. There is some limited support with the
NBM ensembles for isolated pops as they are showing a 15 to 20
percent chance of measurable precipitation Monday evening.
However, very dry conditions exist below 10000 FT AGL tomorrow
and believe it will be difficult to get any pcpn aloft to the
ground. That being said, did include some silent 10 to 14% pops
in the far SW and Southern panhandle Monday evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The shortwave trough over the southern Rockies, will dissipate
Tuesday into Wednesday. Upper level flow will de-amplify across
the western CONUS with west- southwesterly flow developing and
continuing through the end of the work week. Warm temperatures
will continue Tuesday through Friday with highs generally in the
lower to middle 80s, some 10 to 15 degrees above normal for the
beginning of October. Beginning Friday night, a trough of low
pressure will emerge from the southwestern CONUS, crossing the
central portion of the country this weekend. This feature will
drop temperatures to more seasonal levels in the upper 60s and
lower 70s and usher in our next threat for precipitation across
the forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Monday night
across western and north central Nebraska. Southerly LLWS
persists through sunrise Monday morning for much of the area.
Increasing high clouds are then expected through the day,
though should be of limited impact. Winds strengthen from the
south Monday afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 30kts expected for
all area terminals.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Brown

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion