Hatch, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

896
FXUS64 KEPZ 282356
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
556 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 549 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage east of El
   Paso this afternoon, with a few strong to severe storms
   possible. Localized flooding may also occur in this area.
- More isolated thunderstorms will affect Southwestern New Mexico
   this afternoon and evening. Storms may edge in closer to the
   Rio Grande this evening.
- Monday will see thunderstorms return to the Sacramento
   Mountains in the afternoon, but dry conditions are expected
   area-wide beginning Tuesday.
- Temperatures will climb to around 5 to 8 degrees above normal
   by mid-week, as a drier air mass takes over.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The HREF yesterday struggled with afternoon/early evening
convection in SW New Mexico, especially the HRRR which was rather
insistent on developing convection that never materialized. But
they made up for it by successfully timing widespread nocturnal
thunderstorms in the area. Most of the overnight activity has
drifted north of the area as expected, though some new shower and
thunderstorm development is occurring on its coattails over the
the Sacramento Mountains. Isolated thunderstorms are trying to
fire up in far SW New Mexico, and a rather persistent cell is
anchored over the Sierra Diablo mountains between Dell City and
Van Horn.
Water vapor imagery shows our closed upper low has started its
trek to the northeast, and is currently centered over west-central
Arizona. A shortwave trough is evident, arcing from NE Arizona
into SW New Mexico, helping to trigger the isolated storms there.
And there`s also a departing shortwave trough over eastern New
Mexico. Dry slotting in between is keeping most of south-central
NM and the El Paso area dry, but both the NAM and GFS suggest
there`s another shortwave trough/vort lobe embedded in there, and
that will be the main trigger for this afternoon.
The NAM and GFS both slowly lift the two western shortwave troughs
slowly across the area through this afternoon and overnight as
the upper low weakens and heads towards the Four Corners by
morning.
Considering the 12Z HREF and subsequent HRRR runs, the overall
theme appears to be to expect scattered thunderstorms to
increase in coverage this afternoon east of the Rio Grande, ahead
of the shortwave trough embedded in the dry slot. The focus will
mainly be over Otero and Hudspeth County. Isolated storms in SW
New Mexico ahead of the western shortwave will be a little more
scattered, with slightly better coverage in the Black Range and
eastern portions of the Gila. Eventually, the western shortwave
will trigger additional thunderstorms this evening closer to the
Rio Grande, perhaps aided by outflow from the eastern storms
increasing low level convergence (the NAM suggests this in
particular). This may also help trigger a late night round of
thunderstorms further north, mainly over Sierra County.
A few storms this afternoon over eastern areas will be strong to
severe, taking advantage of 0-6km shear of 25-35 knots (down
slightly from what it looked like yesterday). Hail and damaging
winds will be the main threat. Training storms could lead to
localized flooding as well.
On Monday, with the upper trough over Colorado, there will be
enough moisture and lift left over the Sacramento Mountains for
another round of afternoon thunderstorms, with localized heavy
downpours possible.
After that, dry weather looks to take hold through the remainder
of the week, with highs trending to around 5-8 degrees above
normal by mid-week (highs in the low 90s in the lowlands). With
much lower humidity, some of the usual cold spots will become
evident in overnight lows across the area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Showers and thunderstorms largely going up to the east of all
terminals this afternoon. New storm development in northern
Mexico is starting upstream of KELP, KDMN, and KLRU. Models are
suggesting the next wave of storms over the next several hours.
Looks like all terminals could have a chance to see thunderstorms
tonight from around 01-06Z, then activity looks to shut off for
the night. Gusty outflow winds, quick hitting heavy rain,
plentiful lightning, and even hail with the strongest storms are
the hazards to look out for with storms. Much less active tomorrow
afternoon but isolated thunderstorms possible again.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 541 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
An upper low will continue pushing eastward across the Desert
Southwest today, a generous moisture tap snaking up northern
Mexico out ahead of it. This will lead to another day of
unsettled weather across the Borderland. The abundant moisture
will enhance the risk of burn scar flash flooding, particularly
amongst the Sacramento complex of burn scars. A few storms may
become strong to severe this afternoon, capable of damaging winds
and large hail. The upper low will fall into an open wave Sunday
night, the more favorable forcing being lost as it glides up
towards the Rockies. With ample moisture still available, isolated
storms will favor the high terrain in the afternoon on Monday. A
warming and drying trend will take hold from that point forward,
though minimum RH is not anticipated to dip below 20 percent.
Light winds will prevail, save for those generated by thunderstorm
outflows.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  82  63  86  65 /  60  40  10  10
Sierra Blanca            74  52  78  54 /  70  70  30  10
Las Cruces               78  57  81  58 /  40  30  10  10
Alamogordo               78  57  81  58 /  60  50  30  10
Cloudcroft               56  40  60  43 /  70  60  70  10
Truth or Consequences    76  57  79  57 /  40  60  30  10
Silver City              73  53  76  53 /  40  30  20  10
Deming                   81  58  84  57 /  30  20  20  10
Lordsburg                79  59  82  59 /  30  20  10   0
West El Paso Metro       80  62  84  64 /  50  30  10  10
Dell City                79  55  82  56 /  70  60  20   0
Fort Hancock             81  60  85  62 /  70  80  30  10
Loma Linda               73  55  76  58 /  60  40  20  10
Fabens                   81  59  85  61 /  60  50  20  10
Santa Teresa             79  59  82  60 /  40  30  10  10
White Sands HQ           77  59  81  62 /  60  40  20  10
Jornada Range            76  57  80  58 /  60  30  20  10
Hatch                    79  58  83  57 /  40  50  20  10
Columbus                 81  60  84  59 /  30  20  10  10
Orogrande                76  55  79  56 /  60  50  30  10
Mayhill                  66  45  71  48 /  80  60  60  10
Mescalero                68  44  71  47 /  70  60  70  10
Timberon                 65  43  68  46 /  70  60  40  10
Winston                  68  47  73  46 /  40  40  30  10
Hillsboro                75  54  80  54 /  40  40  30  10
Spaceport                76  56  78  55 /  40  40  20  10
Lake Roberts             74  48  76  47 /  40  30  20  10
Hurley                   75  53  78  54 /  50  30  10  10
Cliff                    80  56  83  54 /  30  20  10   0
Mule Creek               76  53  78  52 /  20  10  10   0
Faywood                  74  55  76  55 /  30  30  20  10
Animas                   81  58  84  57 /  30  10  10   0
Hachita                  79  56  82  57 /  30  20  10   0
Antelope Wells           80  57  84  57 /  30  10  10   0
Cloverdale               76  56  78  56 /  20  10  10   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for Northern Hudspeth
     Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
     Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
     Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands.
NM...Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for East Central
     Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains
     Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500
     Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Slopes Sacramento
     Mountains Below 7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...37-Slusher

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion