Harper, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

752
FXUS63 KICT 051753
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1253 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Shower and storm chances increase late this afternoon and evening
  across central KS; a few severe storms are possible
- Below normal temperatures arrive early next week; warming trend
  late next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
As of 330 AM Sunday morning, an expansive midlevel ridge has shifted
east of the central Plains with the approach of a western CONUS
trough. A lead shortwave trough, currently across western SD, was
aiding to shunt a surface trough into portions of northwest KS. An
impressive temperature gradient resides along the front with 40s
behind the front and 70s ahead. A stout pre-frontal pressure
gradient remains across central and western KS with southerly wind
gusts up to 35 mph. VAD wind profiles across the Plains reveal WAA
with low and midlevel veering wind profiles. Scattered reflectivity
returns have been noted across portions of western KS in response to
this WAA pattern. Cloud bases are between 10-15 kft with a
tremendously dry sub-cloud layer. As a result, most areas will
remain dry this morning.
Transitioning into this afternoon, the surface trough axis will
extend from southwest KS into north central KS. Scattered
thunderstorm development is expected along/immediately behind the
front with initiation likely near or just west of Russell/Barton
counties. HRRR/RAP forecast soundings reveal steep low-level lapse
rates (8-9 C/km) with modest midlevel lapse rates (7-8 C/km),
contributing to MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. Modest veering and
acceleration of the vertical wind profile will create 30-40 kt of
effective shear. As such, a few strong or severe storm cannot be
ruled out this afternoon and evening. The strongest storms will be
capable of large hail up to quarter size and damaging winds up to
65m mph.
The frontal zone will slowly move across the forecast area Monday
into Tuesday, setting the stage for additional shower and
thunderstorm chances (30-60%). Temperatures behind the front
will be much cooler with highs in the 60s and 70s. Surface
ridging will settle into the area by mid-week with seasonable
temperatures and light winds. Midlevel ridging will build across
the central/southern Plains for the second half of the week,
which will likely result in a warming trends with temperatures
nearing 80 degrees once again.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Breezy southerly surface winds will continue at all sites
through the early afternoon before gradually diminishing through
the early evening as a cold front approaches the region. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop along this front this evening
across central Kansas mainly impacting KRSL and KGBD initially.
The front will continue to move southeast through the overnight
hours with showers and storms eventually spreading to KSLN,
KHUT, and KICT by tomorrow morning. Behind the front, winds will
become northerly and MVFR to IFR ceilings will develop and
persist through the end of this TAF period.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...WI

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion