Harbison, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

781
FXUS62 KCAE 302355
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
755 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, cool conditions likely through the rest of the week as NE
flow strengthens. Rain chances increase again late in the weekend
into early next week as moisture increases.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Breezy winds overnight as Imelda moisture steadily pulls away
  to the east.
Imelda is finally pulling away to the east this evening,
dragging a broad moisture shield with it. PWAT`s will slowly dip
overnight as a result as surface ridging fills in the wake of
Imelda`s moisture plume. Just a few very light showers will
linger into the morning with some trapped low level moisture. Winds
will remain gusty into Wednesday morning as the surface ridge
builds in with some gusts up to 15 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Drier air settles into the region Wednesday.
- Notably cooler by Thursday.
A west-east oriented upper trough axis will persist over the region
initially, then begin to drop to the south on Wednesday afternoon.
This will allow a weak cold front to drop through and surface high
pressure to build down from the north along the lee of the
Appalachians ushering a much drier airmass. Model soundings show
that while the low levels dry out considerably, high level moisture
persists so there could be some lingering mainly high level cloud
cover despite no rain chances. A tight surface pressure gradient
will make for a breezy day, with gusts upwards of 20-25 mph at
times, beginning once the inversion breaks late morning and
persisting into the evening. Highs will be near normal, but
overnight lows will be below normal due to the dry airmass and clear
skies.
The dry airmass will persist on Thursday, with LREF mean
precipitable water values ranging from 0.6 to 0.9 inches. Notably
cooler temperatures are also expected, with continued breezy
conditions during the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Dry and cool conditions likely this week
- Rain chances increase near the end of the long term
Strong high pressure will continue to ridge into the region from the
north through Friday, providing dry and unseasonably cool
conditions. The upper pattern will begin to transition late in the
week and over the weekend as an upper trough cuts off over the deep
south. This will allow for the development of an onshore flow and
influx of Atlantic moisture into the area by late weekend,
increasing rain chances into early next week. Temperature will
return to near-normal values Saturday through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the 24 hour period.
Ceilings continue to slowly rise this evening, with vfr
conditions being reported at most locations across the region.
Some mid level stratus does still exist this evening, and those
clouds should remain broken over the next few hours before
finally becoming more scattered by midnight. Northerly winds
between 5-10 kts overnight, then winds increase after sunrise
Wednesday with wind gusts as high as 20 kts possible.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions expected
Wednesday through Saturday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion