Halyoke, Massachusetts Weather Forecast Discussion

022
FXUS61 KBOX 251753
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
153 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected into this
evening as a frontal system moves into the region. Locally heavy
rainfall may produce street flooding, and can`t rule out an isolated
strong to severe storm in western New Eng. Improving conditions
Friday with increasing sunshine and warm conditions. The weather
pattern is mostly dry this weekend into next week, but watching
showers to the south may impact the region Saturday night into
Sunday. Mostly warm conditions expected into early next week, then a
strong cold front will deliver a fall airmass by next Wednesday
with temperatures well below normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2PM Update:
Rest of Today and Tonight
Key Messages:
* Continued low risk of severe weather, including a tornado,
  mainly across western MA/CT.
* Showers/thunderstorms winding down tonight
A mid-level shortwave lifts northeast this evening into the
overnight hours. Strong integrated water vapor transport ahead of
the associated cold front will support a surge of PWATs up to 2+
inches this afternoon. This will allow for periods of heavy
downpours across southern New England this evening. The latest high-
resolution guidance favors the heaviest rainfall west of Worcester,
where an additional 0.5 to 1 inch of rain is possible through around
midnight with locally higher amounts possible. Elsewhere, expect
more scattered to isolated showers with the potential for a
localized downpour or rumble of thunder.
After midnight, the mid-level trough axis shifts east of the region,
resulting in a wind shift to the west. This will push the
anomalously moist airmass offshore, beginning a drying trend that
will persist into the weekend. Dewpoints will gradually fall
overnight, though still remain elevated enough to support mild low
temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night
Key Messages:
* Warm and humid Friday
* Trending cooler/drier into the weekend
A secondary pulse of shortwave energy crosses southern New England
during the day Friday. Redeveloping low-level southwest flow ahead
of this feature will promote warm air advection, maintaining 925 mb
temperatures in the 1718C range. This will translate to surface
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, several degrees above normal.
Despite the mid-level energy, dry air aloft should suppress any
shower activity. Still, a stray shower cannot be ruled out across
southeastern MA where somewhat deeper moisture lingers. Overall,
expect a warm, quiet day with a mix of sun and clouds.
Friday night, west to northwest flow develops as the shortwave exits
offshore. This will usher in cooler and drier air, with PWATs
falling below 1 inch. 925 mb temps dip into the 1012C range. With
clear skies and light winds, efficient radiational cooling will
allow lows to fall into the low to mid 50s across much of the
interior, with upper 50s to lower 60s closer to the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Above normal temps this weekend into Monday, then turning much
  cooler by Wed with a touch of fall
* Dry for much of the period, but northern extent of tropical
  moisture may bring a chance of showers Sat night into Sun
* Humberto expected to remain offshore next week
Warm and dry Sat, then will be watching tropical moisture plume lift
northward. GFS is most aggressive and bring a period of showers into
the region Sat night into Sun. Confluent flow is present over
northern New Eng so expect a sharp moisture gradient on the northern
edge which results in a low confidence forecast at this range. Based
on ensemble probs of 0.1" QPF, we have chance showers south of the
MA Pike Sat night into Sun. If showers do develop temps will be
several degrees cooler than current forecast with 60s, but 70s if it
remains dry. Warm weather continues into Monday with potential for
80+, then cold front pushes southward on Tue which will bring a fall
airmass by Wed as strong high pres builds to the north.
The strong front early next week should keep Humberto offshore.
Latest global ensemble tracks are in agreement that Humberto will
remain well to the south before curving offshore.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12z TAF Update: Low confidence due to uncertainty in timing.
Widespread IFR/LIFR in showers and fog through tonight. Main
area of concern for TS through the evening in western MA and CT
with much lower chances farther east. Slow improvement to MVFR
and eventually VFR Fri with VFR persisting into Fri night.
Winds veer to S through late afternoon and to SW and W tonight.
Strong 40-45 SW low level jet will cause LLWS most of tonight,
especially for coastal airports.
KBOS Terminal...Low confidence in TAF. IFR cigs should prevail
but there could be periods where cigs lift higher than forecast
through this evening, possibly to MVFR at times.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs could end up
being slightly higher than forecast, reaching MVFR at times
through tonight.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday Night through Saturday: VFR.
Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night through Monday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Friday Night...High Confidence
Seas build to 56 feet across the outer coastal waters overnight,
maintaining Small Craft Advisory conditions through Friday morning.
Conditions gradually improve during the day Friday as seas subside
and winds ease from the west/southwest. A dry cold front crosses the
waters Friday night, shifting winds to the north/northwest with
speeds and gusts generally 10 kt or less. Overall, relatively quiet
boating conditions are expected late Friday night into Saturday
morning.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Local visibility
1 to 3 nm.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Sunday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight
chance of rain showers.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ232>234.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ250-254.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday
     for ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...RM/JWD
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...KJC

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion