Hagali, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

634
FXUS63 KFGF 010405
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1105 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue this week with
  record highs possible in some areas on Thursday. Increased
  shower chances this weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Scattered sprinkles to a few showers continues. The expectation
is for more to be on the way, mainly after midnight, but impacts
will remain limited. No other weather impacts are expected
overnight.
UPDATE
Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Isolated sprinkles early this evening are possible but impacts
will remain limited. Greater chances for showers arise overnight
into the morning hours but accumulations will be limited so
impacts will be fairly minor. Isolated lightning cannot be ruled
out.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...Synopsis...
Southwesterly flow aloft continues as upper ridging over the
Midwest moves east. Water vapor loop shows a fairly vigorous
shortwave lifting through western SD, and several other weaker
vorts surrounding it. One of those in central ND is starting to
produce some showers, and there is enough instability for some
lightning to get going, but shear is negligible and not
expecting anything severe. These showers and weak thunderstorms
should start to move into our eastern ND side tonight, although
CAMs have it a bit later than seems to be happening. Will
continue to keep low POPs going, and any impacts look to be
minor with a few hundredths of rain and isolated lightning.
Southerly winds at the surface and southwesterly flow aloft will
continue into tomorrow and Thursday, with another shortwave
expected to come through Wednesday night. High heights and warm
temps will continue for the next few days, before a shortwave
coming over the top of the ridge Friday starts to knock things
down a bit and brings a frontal boundary. Large temperature
spread with clouds and precip as well as the front coming down.
However, even the cooler side of the front will be above
seasonal averages for Friday and Saturday before the main upper
trough digs in Sunday. More seasonable readings for the start of
next week.
...Near record warmth Thursday...
Expecting less cloud cover for Thursday than today or Wednesday
as the main shortwaves move off to the east. Probabilities for
highs 85 and above are 40 percent or higher for large portions
of our CWA south of the Highway 2 corridor. Thus, continued the
previous shift`s trend of adding in the NBM 75th percentile to
highs. Less certain about breaking Fargo`s record of 90 degrees
as probabilities for above that mark are 30 percent, but high
confidence in at least 20 degrees above seasonal averages and
records that are in the mid to upper 80s will be under threat.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Low level wind shear and gusts will be the main aviation impacts
for the TAF period. While gusts should be fairly limited
overnight, this will be replaced by low level wind shear between
30 and 40 knots at around 2000 ft. Showers may impact any TAF
site after 09z but confidence is low in the scope of
precipitation to add any PROB30 or prevailing group to the TAF.
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period with
gusts increasing after sunrise. Winds will eventually shift to
westerly by late afternoon early evening.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Perroux

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion