Gustavus, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

335
FXAK67 PAJK 022332
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
332 PM AKDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.SHORT TERM...Rain and wind are the story of the day for the
remainder of Thursday, as a front pushes into SE AK. Elevated and
gusty winds are spreading from NW to SE as of the time of writing,
and the wind and rain look set to continue through Thursday
night, before departing on Friday, leaving onshore flow and
showers in its wake. Anticipate that more interior areas like
Juneau, Petersburg, and Wrangell, will have the best chances of
showers.
.LONG TERM...Saturday sees a break for the panhandle in terms of
precipitation and lighter winds from a relaxed gradient. The one
exception being Lynn Canal, which, mostly driven by leeside
troughing from westerly wind aloft moving over the Coast Mountains
and troughing in the interior of Canada, can see winds up to a
moderate breeze in the afternoon hours.
Sunday has some increased confidence, with ensemble guidance
coming into some alignment regarding timing of heavier rainfall
for Yakutat. Cluster analysis, mainly focused around the EPS and
GEPS with some minor influence by the GEFS, has yielded a solution
leaning wetter for Yakutat, with more uncertain rain for the rest
of the panhandle. In around a 48 hour period, currently expecting
2.5 - 4.0 inches of rainfall with around a 20% chance to exceed 5
inches in the same duration. Models diverge significantly after
this point, with some indicating that heavier rainfall will move
over the panhandle and others keeping it near the NE Gulf coast.
Ultimately, there is good agreement that the precipitation looks
to come to an end for a short break by Wednesday.
Short note about snow because it is that time of year: Not
expecting much of the Haines or Klondike Highway during the long
term forecast. The upcoming rain maker for Yakutat looks to bring
in hefty warm air advection over the area, pushing snow levels
well above 5000 ft.
&&
.AVIATION.../through 00z Saturday/...
Flight conditions will deteriorate through the rest of Thursday
afternoon as a front pushes into the SEAK panhandle. For the
northern panhandle, expecting conditions to deteriorate down to
MVFR to IFR with CIGS AoB 3000ft from W to E through 02z as front
extends inland. For the S panhandle, brief period of VFR this
evening with CIGS AoB 5000ft, deteriorating back down to MVFR with
CIGS AoB 3000ft by 06z as front reaches the S panhandle.
Winds across the panhandle will increase through Thursday evening
due to aforementioned passing front, with strongest sustained
winds around 15 to 20kts with gusts up to 25 to 30kts. Strongest
winds will remain generally across the N Panhandle TAF sites,
along the Icy Strait Corridor and northward, with strongest winds
expected at Skagway through the evening.
LLWS will shift from W to E along with the front, pushing inland
across interior TAF sites through 12z. Not anticipating
significant LLWS at this time, around 20 to 30kts SW-ly shifting
SE-ly. LLWS and rainfall will gradually come to an end from W to E
around 12 to 18z as front exits into British Columbia.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside: Through Thursday night, winds of 20 kt to 30 kt
anticipated for most areas, and gales (35 kt) for the far northern
gulf. Wave heights rebuild across the area, reaching 11-15 feet
Thursday night for areas south of Cape Spencer, and 7 to 9 feet
for areas north of Cape Spencer. Through the day on Friday, winds
diminish to 15 - 20 kt out of the W, and waveheights by late
Friday afternoon diminish to 6 to 8 feet. Swell is currently of
the SW.
Inside: Winds in the central and northern inner channels are
building to 20 to 30 kt through Thursday night as a front moves
through. Wave heights will follow suit, building to 4 to 6 ft,
with higher heights at ocean entrances and in areas with local
tidal currents and influences (like Point Couverden). WInds
subside to 10 to 15 kt on Friday, with waveheights subsiding down
towards 2 to 3 ft.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Friday for
     AKZ318.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031>036-053-641>644-651-
     652-661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...GFS
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

NWS AJK Office Area Forecast Discussion