Guildhall, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

882
FXUS61 KBTV 190620
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
220 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler temperatures with increasing amounts of sunshine are
expected today on north winds of 5 to 15 mph with some higher
gusts. Areas of frost and freeze conditions are expected tonight
and again on Saturday night with temperatures cooling into the
mid 20s to lower 40s, with warmest air near Lake Champlain. The
next chance of showers arrives early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 154 AM EDT Friday...A freeze warning and frost advisory
has been issued for parts of the region from 2 AM to 8 AM
Saturday for temperatures between 25 and 35 degrees. Coolest
temperatures will occur near sunrise on Saturday. SPS continues
for near critical fire weather conditions across portions of our
area.
Sfc analysis place cold frnt acrs southern New England, while
cooler northerly flow prevails acrs our fa. This northerly
upslope flow and moderate caa has resulted in clouds and a few
sprinkles this morning. However, GOES-19 water vapor shows very
dry air aloft advecting into our cwa, which should quickly
dissipate any clouds by mid/late morning. With increasing
amounts of sunshine, minimal aftn humidity values wl drop into
the 35 to 45% range. This combined with drought conditions and
northerly winds 5 to 15 mph with localized gusts near 20 mph
will produce near critical fire weather conditions this aftn
acrs portions of our cwa. Have continued with sps based on user
coordination yesterday. Highs generally in the 60s to near 70F
acrs our region. Tonight 1030mb high pres conts to nose into our
cwa with clear skies and decreasing wind profiles. Given the
very dry airmass and weakening winds, have trended temps toward
the cooler BCCONSMOS, which supports near 25F SLK to 28F Island
Pond to lower/mid 30s most of the frost advisory area to lower
40s near Lake Champlain. Soundings still showing very dry air
near summit level, so anticipate poor recover humidities acrs
the midslopes and ridges, with excellent recoveries in the
deeper valleys. A profile typical of the western CONUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 154 AM EDT Friday...No significant changes made to the
fcst with sfc high pres directly overnight on Saturday into
Sunday. Expect plenty of sunshine associated with deep dry layer
in place with coldest night of the fall season anticipated on
Sat night. Additional freeze/frost headlines wl be needed acrs
most of the area that is away from Lake Champlain. Lows
generally in the l/m 20s SLK/NEK to mid/upper 30s, except lower
40s near Lake Champlain. Highs are in the 60s on Sat and warm
back into the upper 60s to lower 70s by Sunday with some
increasing high clouds by aftn.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 219 AM EDT Friday...The start of next week looks to begin a bit
on the unsettled side with chances of precipitation through at least
mid-week. A developing upper low across the northern Plains and
Great Lakes will swing into the area Monday into Tuesday. A warm
front Monday night should bring some chances for precipitation
(40-50%) for portions of northern New York, primarily the St.
Lawrence Valley. As the upper low moves closer Tuesday, a more broad
trough looks to take shape across the entire region with most likely
some scattered showers across the northern portions of the area.
Better chances for any rain will be across the higher terrain of the
Adirondacks and northern Greens. While precipitation will likely not
be a true wetting rain, ensemble trends have come into better
agreement with the overall pattern and increased precipitation
chances over the last 2-3 runs. Probabilities of 48 hour
precipitation greater than 0.5 inches Monday through Tuesday
currently are around 30-40% for northern New York and the northern
Greens, around 20% elsewhere. 48 hour probabilities of greater than
0.25 inches are better around 60% for northern New York and 40-50%
across Vermont. Trends are moving in the right direction for some
much needed, albeit still low, rain.
Temperatures next week look to be quite nice and seasonable with
highs generally in the upper 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s to
low 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...A mainly dry piecemeal cold front is
progressing through the area to the southeast. Ceilings in the
higher terrain and at MSS have trended towards MVFR, with IFR
currently at SLK. Ceilings at all sites should trend towards
MVFR tonight mainly between 09Z and 12Z when cold advection is
at its peak. Confidence is highest at SLK for periodic IFR
ceilings between 600-1000 ft agl, and prevailing low MVFR
1000-1500 ft agl through at least 10Z. Beyond 10Z, sites should
be prevailing low to mid MVFR 1500-2500 ft agl. Gradual
improvement back to VFR should occur after 12Z through 15Z, with
SLK being the last to return to VFR. Following, VFR conditions
will persist through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will
primarily be northwesterly with occasional gusts tonight to 15
knots as the front passes through. By 12Z, lake enhanced winds
at BTV/PBG could increase northerly wind gusts up to 20 knots,
and generally 15 knots elsewhere. Winds will calm by tonight.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A Special Weather Statement continues for near critical fire
weather conditions today across portions of the area. Much
cooler temperatures with increasing amounts of sunshine are
expected today. The minimal afternoon humidities will be in the
35% to 45% range with a few values near 30% in the Champlain
and lower Connecticut River Valleys. North winds will be 5 to 15
mph with some localized gusts 20 to 25 mph across exposed
midslopes and ridges and aligned north to south valleys, like
the Champlain Valley. These parameters combined with the
drought conditions has resulted in fuels remaining very dry per
coordination with partners. So if any fires were to start, the
weather and fuel conditions could cause fires to quickly get out
of control and be difficult to contain.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for VTZ002-003-
     006>008-010-016-017.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for VTZ004.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ026-027-
     029-034-087.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ030-031.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
FIRE WEATHER...Team BTV

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