Greens Fork, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

224
FXUS61 KILN 212351
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
751 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather pattern change to take place with rain and storm chances
on and off through at least midweek. This pattern is likely to
persist with periodic chances for rain lingering through the end of
the week and into next weekend. Above normal temperatures will
continue through early this week before a wetter and cooler pattern
develops midweek and beyond.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A broad southwest flow will advect deeper moisture into the area
with the approach of a mid level shortwave. Low end moderate
instability expected to develop - along with effective shear
approaching 20 kts. Radar and satellite shows development of
scattered convection across the southern FA where the CAP has
eroded. Expect continued development of showers/thunderstorms
with a general eastward progression across the FA thru the
afternoon. A few of the stronger updrafts could produce gusty to
damaging wind gusts.
There will be a decrease in coverage of showers/thunderstorms from
west to east early this evening due to loss of diurnally driven
instby and with the loss of forcing.
However, can not rule out the possibility of a few lingering showers
overnight with an increase in coverage across the west toward
daybreak. Temperatures drop to lows between 60 and 65.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
Broad southwest flow aloft with better jet dynamics increasing
Monday with the approach of a shortwave. In response to this s/w
a 30-35kt 8H jet offers moisture advection and PWATs trending well
above normal - above 1.70 inches. Expect coverage of showers and
thunderstorms to increase thru the day with several rounds of
convection possible for any location. Effective shear around 25 kts
may support some organized multicells with a few storms capable of strong
to damaging wind gusts during the afternoon into evening.
Highs Monday top out in the upper 70s northwest to the mid 80s
southeast.
With shortwave rotating thru the area expect widespread shower and
thunderstorms to continue Monday night. The severe threat diminishes
thru the evening with the loss of daytime heating. Low temperatures
bottom out between 60 and 65.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A wet and unsettled weather pattern develops this week across the
Ohio Valley. On Tuesday, zonal upper level flow with embedded
shortwaves troughs overlap with anomalously high PWATs. This setup
allows for generalized shower and storm chances throughout the day.
On Wednesday through Thursday night, a vertically stacked low
pressure system drifts toward the Ohio Valley. While the exact
placement of the low is  bit uncertain, a prolonged period of shower
and storm chances persists with the low off the west and high PWATs
in place. Eventually, the low fills and slowly drifts east of the
area toward the end of the week. Once the low moves east, forcing
and moisture decrease thereby significantly lowering the chance for
precipitation. Temperatures remain warm through the week and
moisture will be fairly high especially compared to the last few
weeks. Rain totals of around 2 inches are possible through the
middle of the week. This rain should help improve the drought
conditions that have developed.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Convection has exited the terminals this evening and scattered cloud
cover will pass by through the night, more notable around 10kft than
not. Wind has shifted sse and lightened to under 7kt which should be
consistent through the overnight hours.
Towards daybreak, a good shot of rain will expand from CVG/LUK to the
northeast. Cigs should remain vfr for the majority of this time but
some drops in heavier showers can be expected. Likewise, vsby
restrictions with embedded thunderstorms will be possible throughout
the day across the area.
While it is likely these showers will be present for longer periods
of time, a few models are showing dry periods also being present.
It`s not until the afternoon that cigs drop to MVFR in thunderstorm
activity. Winds should remain sly 10-12kt outside of higher gusts in
convection.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Franks

NWS ILN Office Area Forecast Discussion