Grant, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

694
FXUS65 KTFX 270726
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
126 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and mild through the weekend for most.
- Precipitation chances return as early as Sunday evening across
   far Southwest Montana.
- Smoky skies at times from local wildfires.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
- Meteorological Overview:
Upper level ridging will persist across the region this weekend
allowing for dry and mild conditions to continue. Cross barrier flow
and a respectable pressure gradient will allow for gusty winds to
continue along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains early
this morning before subsiding toward midday today. No concerns
are in place through the weekend otherwise, with the only
remaining blemish from patchy wildfire smoke.
Heading into next week, flow aloft becomes increasingly
southwesterly ahead of upper level troughing building in off the
Pacific NW coast. Embedded waves flowing through this southwesterly
flow aloft will allow for shower and thunderstorm opportunities to
creep back into the forecast early next week, initially across far
Southwest Montana Sunday evening.
Looking toward mid to late week, model guidance diverges
significantly on how the Pacific NW troughing progresses inland.
Solutions that favor more precipitation feature a stronger, more
intact upper disturbance. Conversely, guidance that is less
aggressive with precipitation features troughing that transitions
into more of an open wave before moving across the Northern Rockies.
Both solutions are reasonable, so opting for a more middle of the
road forecast for the time being. -AM
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Confidence in the forecast is high through early next week. Heading
toward mid to late week considerable uncertainty arises with respect
to progression of the Pacific NW troughing related to both speed of
the system as well as the magnitude of the troughing. Cluster
analysis gives a roughly 25% chance for a more robust troughing
moving toward the Northern Rockies late week, with the other 75%
of members featuring an open wave. As mentioned prior, a stronger
system would favor better precipitation chances and cooler
conditions, while an open wave would favor a less cool/wet
scenario. -AM
&&
.AVIATION...
27/06Z TAF Period.
Overall, VFR conditions are expected across the CWA through the
period. Some smoke will reduce distant visibility at times,
obscuring mountains/passes through the period. Brusda
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  81  47  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  77  43  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  80  46  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  79  44  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  71  33  72  36 /   0   0  10  20
DLN  76  41  79  46 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  81  45  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  79  49  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion