Graceton, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

786
FXUS64 KSHV 271731 AAA
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1231 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
- Dry trend will continue through the weekend into much of next
   week.
- Milder temperatures will be here for a while as well with lower
   daytime humidity. Cooler temperatures will especially be felt
   at night with low temperatures through the weekend before
   temperatures begin to slowly moderate by the next work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A benign pattern is in play across the region as dry conditions
continue to surge southward in the wake of a mid week frontal
passage. Compared to what was messaged in the previous forecast
package, not much has changed. Dry weather with mild temperatures
will continue across the FA through the rest of the weekend and
into the upcoming week. Deterministic output continues to suggest
that a weak 500mb trough axis will continue to slide east across
the SE CONUS, allowing for a more pronounced upper ridge envelope
to evolve across the center of the country. The subsidence aloft
as a result of this pattern can be seen in the 700-300MB RH
profile with percentages in the single digits extending as far
north as the Upper Midwest. This dry air profile is the same layer
that will attempt to dive south across the eastern Gulf and try
to entrain within the newly designated Tropical Depression Nine as
it advances north across the Bahamas and runs parallel to the
east coast of Florida.
Back at home and looking long term, longwave troughing will
extend into the region come late Monday and into Tuesday. As
expressed in the morning package, and with no real change noticed
in the recent guidance available, lack of sufficient moisture to
work with the upper level ascent will suppress any confidence of
precip from this pattern adjustment. That being said, long range
support across the deterministic suggests some form of long wave
troughing that may retrograde across the SE CONUS by the middle
of the week. Much of the guidance, including the latest NBM
continues to suggest that even with the upper level feature, that
we will continue to stay dry locally though PoPs could change if
confidence improves. For now though, a dry and mild period is
expected through the next 7 days.
KNAPP
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the 27/18Z TAF period. A
scattered cu field has developed across much of the region early
this afternoon, and will persist before diminishing around/shortly
after 00Z. Areas of thin cirrus should gradually begin to
increase across portions of E TX/NW LA this evening, before
spreading farther N and E across the remainder of the region
by/after daybreak Sunday. A scattered cu field should again
develop after 16Z over E TX/SW AR/Wrn LA, but may be more sparse
across SCntrl AR/ECntrl LA, including ELD/MLU. N or Vrb winds
around 5kts this afternoon will become Lt/Vrb or calm after 00Z.
/15/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  89  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  60  88  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  59  86  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  62  90  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  58  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  63  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  60  87  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  61  91  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...15

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion