Gordon, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

302
FXUS62 KTAE 210956
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
556 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Surface high pressure builds into the region from the northeast this
afternoon and northeasterly flow should increase slightly compared
to what we saw on Saturday. As surface high pressure moves in,
drier and more stable air will also filter in from the northeast.
Isolated showers and possibly a few storms are possible again
this afternoon but coverage will mostly be confined to the
Panhandle and across southeast Alabama where greater instability
is forecast. Much of the Big Bend and southern Georgia should
remain rain free this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Weak surface high pressure axis will extend southwest into the area
on Monday and into Tuesday leading to mostly light east and
northeasterly flow. In the upper levels, a broad trough over the
northeastern Gulf will slowly translate east but favorable deep-
layer moisture and ascent will remain well south and east of the
forecast area so dry and warm conditions are likely to continue but
we can`t rule out isolated showers if any low-level moisture can
return to the area on Tuesday.
As we move from Wednesday into Friday, a potential change in the
pattern could lead to greater rain chances as a large upper level
trough swings through the southeast US. This system will likely
bring the first widespread chances for rainfall across the forecast
area that we`ve seen in several weeks. Unfortunately, while guidance
is fairly confident at this point in higher rainfall chances, the
rainfall amounts do not appear to be significantly high. While this
rainfall and slightly cooler temps will certainly be welcome by
many, it`s not likely to be the drought-busting rainfall that
many are hoping for. The greatest rain chances will likely be
Thursday into Friday as the frontal system moves through with
drier conditions moving in for next weekend. Information on
potential rainfall amounts can be found in the hydrology section
below.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Any
patchy MVFR visibility early this morning will dissipate quickly
after sunrise.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 118 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Winds will become easterly today as high pressure shifts eastward
over the Appalachians. Winds for the most part will remain light
to gentle, though some moderate easterly surges are possible,
mainly tonight and again on Monday night. Seas will remain around
1 to 2 feet. Winds become more southerly to southwesterly ahead
of an approaching cold front late in the upcoming week with an
increased chance for scattered showers and storms. Despite the
approaching front later this week, winds and seas should likely
remain below cautionary levels.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 118 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Surface high pressure builds into the region from the northeast
today. Temperatures will continue to remain above normal with mostly
dry conditions forecast. Better mixing and higher transport winds
will lead to high dispersions this afternoon across the Florida Big
Bend and into southern Georgia. Isolated showers and possibly a
thunderstorm are possible across the Panhandle and into southeast
Alabama at the edge of the surface high pressure moving in this
afternoon. The chance for widespread wetting rains continues to
remain very low into Wednesday and this should keep fire weather
concerns elevated given most locations are around 3 weeks without
rainfall. A frontal system approaches later this upcoming week and
while rain chances are high with this system, the chances for
significant widespread drought busting rains is very low.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 118 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Any rainfall that falls over the next 5 days will be very isolated
and rather light. Mid to late next week, better rain chances
return, but rain amounts vary significantly. Regardless, at this
point it doesn`t appear that this will be a drought-busting
rain event with most likely totals being around 0.25 to 0.75
inches. The high end rainfall totals are around 1-1.25 inches,
which is still not quite enough to alleviate the drought. And
there`s a low-end possibility that we miss most of the rain with
the 10th percentile rainfall around a tenth of an inch.
Given the very hot temperatures, lower humidity, and general lack
of appreciable rainfall, drought conditions continue to worsen
across the area, in some cases, rapidly. Until a good soaking rain
occurs, drought conditions will keep worsening as we enter our
driest months climatologically.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  69  92  70 /   0   0  10   0
Panama City   92  72  91  71 /  10   0  10   0
Dothan        93  68  92  67 /  20  10   0   0
Albany        93  68  92  68 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      92  67  91  69 /   0   0  10   0
Cross City    93  68  92  70 /   0   0  20   0
Apalachicola  86  74  86  72 /  10   0  10   0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion