Goodway, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

237
FXUS64 KMOB 242331
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
631 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A more active upper pattern will bring rain back to the forecast
area the next few days. An upper trough moves east over the
Southeast, organizing into a closed upper system as it passes. A
weak cool front crosses the forecast area Thursday night in
response. Ahead of the front, a drier airmass over the forecast area
is moving off as a more organized southwesterly flow ahead of the
front bring Gulf moisture inland. By Thursday morning, moisture
levels rise into the 2.0-2.2" range, with numerous showers and
thunderstorms forming over the forecast area Thursday. Behind the
front, a mainly drier airmass moves over the forecast area beginning
Thursday night/early Friday. A second passing shortwave trough over
the weekend will have little moisture to work with, so am not
expecting any showers as the trough passes.
Looking at any issues with or ahead of the approaching front, SPC
has placed a marginal risk for severe weather encompassing
northwestern portions of the forecast area and northwest for
today/tonight. The marginal shifts to forecast area wide for
Thursday. Biggest issue will be available instability. Modest
mid/upper support is bringing Bulk Wind Shear values approaching 30
knots to areas northwest of the forecast area tonight through most
of Thursday, enough for some weakly organized storms. Instability is
modest in the guidance Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, with
MUCapes around 1500J/kg northwest of I-65 this afternoon/tonight,
forecast area wide Thursday. Cloud cover is expected to limit
heating and instability, though, so this value may be a bit on the
high side. Some guidance is advertising some added upper divergence
on the leading edge of an upper jet moving east over the forecast
area Thursday that may help storm development. If the forecast area
sees enough breaks in the cloud cover for decent heating, the
forecast area may see a few rowdy storms over the northwestern third
of the forecast area today, shifting southeast on Thursday. Looking
at water issues, with precipitable h20 values rising above 2", heavy
rainers are possible. Movement of the storms developing tonight
through Thursday is expected to be high enough to limit, but not
eliminate, localized water issues. Any developing boundaries may
allow some focusing of storm development, so can not rule out water
issues at this point. Will need to monitor, either case.
Temperatures above seasonal norms today will drop to around or a bit
below for Thursday, due to the greater precipitation coverage
through the forecast. Temperatures rise back to above seasonal norms
for the weekend, with guidance modest in the cool push behind the
approaching cold front. High temperatures in the upper 80s to low
90s today drop into the low to mid 80s for Thursday, upper 80s
southeast of I-65 with this area seeing heavier rains later in the
day. After the front passes Thursday night, the weekend sees a
rebound in temperatures to above seasonal norms for Sunday into the
coming week, with mid to upper 80s expected Sunday through
Wednesday. Low temperatures rise into the around 70 to low 70s range
Wednesday night. The drier air and clearing skies behind the passing
front will allow overnight temperatures to drop into the low to mid
60s north of I-10 to upper 60s to near 70 south to the coast. Low
temperatures moderate a degree or two through the weekend, with
little change in moisture levels and light winds.
Weak, diurnally driven flow early in the week will become a more
organized onshore mid week. Combined with an increasing tidal cycle,
a low to low end moderate risk of rip currents is possible tonight
into Thursday night. /16
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Convective hazards to approaches/departures look to increase thru
next 24 hrs. Satellite and surface observations indicate mainly
high based overcast pivoting eastward over the deep south. Within
the overcast, a mix of scattered MVFR CIG bases were associated
with scattered to numerous convective activity that`s streaming
east northeast over the central Gulf coast this evening. Scattered
convection this evening looks to increase in areal coverage late
tonight, continuing into the day Thursday as a front eases
eastward across the Lower MS River Valley. CIG bases look to lower
to MVFR categories late tonight into Thursday. CIG`S/VSBY perhaps
briefly lowering to IFR categories with the passage of any
stronger tsra. /10
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A more organized onshore flow today through Thursday will
being a light to moderate flow. Light to moderate flow follows
behind the front for the coming weekend. /16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  84  68  86  64  88  64  89 /  50  80  50  30  10   0   0   0
Pensacola   77  86  72  84  68  88  68  88 /  30  80  70  50  10  10   0   0
Destin      77  86  72  84  70  86  69  87 /  20  70  80  60  20  10   0   0
Evergreen   71  86  67  87  62  88  61  90 /  50  80  50  40  10   0   0   0
Waynesboro  69  82  64  84  60  86  60  87 /  60  80  20  20   0   0   0   0
Camden      69  82  65  84  62  84  61  86 /  70  80  40  20  10   0   0   0
Crestview   71  87  68  84  64  88  62  89 /  30  80  70  60  10  10   0   0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion