Good Thunder, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

088
FXUS63 KMPX 051747
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1247 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- One more day of summer-like weather, although records highs are
  not anticipated to be broken today.
- Windy conditions expected today, with gusts of 35 to 45 MPH.
- Cooler temperatures arrive Monday, with patchy frost possible
  Tuesday night in western Wisconsin. This will be short-lived
  with highs returning to the 70s by Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Morning `lows` are all but that early this Sunday morning.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s across southern Minnesota
and west-central Wisconsin with very few clouds in the sky. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, normal HIGH temperatures
this time of year are in the mid 60s. Highs today will still be
able to reach the low to mid 80s with the support of the
thermal ridge, but it won`t be nearly as warm as Saturday`s
record breaking heat. Winds remain strong and southerly, with
gusts across Minnesota into the 30-35MPH range. The low- level
jet will support the continuation of these gusty winds through
most of the day today until the frontal passage shifts winds to
the northwest and knocks them down quite a bit. Another Special
Weather Statement will be in place for most of the day (across
Minnesota) due to the breezy sustained winds.
Taking a look at the precipitation chances today, you can see
what is to come across South Dakota this morning: scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms. Guidance isn`t in very good
agreement with chances for anything before noon, but there are
a few outliers that do show a line of light precip moving across
southern Minnesota around 9AM. While these pre-frontal chances
can`t completely be written off (less than 20%), the greater
chance for precip is this afternoon when the cold front and
surface low pass through. Forecast soundings show modest
surface-based instability, which should be enough to support
showers and a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon. As far as
coverage goes, things will be scattered with the possibility of
some of the precip not reaching the ground. Taking this into
consideration, any precipitation amounts will remain light. The
area most favored for rain chances (50%) is along and east of
I-35 by mid to late afternoon (3PM onward). All will be out of
the area (and windows can finally be opened!) by the time most
go to bed tonight.
Monday will start off with quite the contrast to this morning:
temperatures in the 40s to low 50s. Dewpoints will be about 10
to 15 degrees lower, creating a typical crisp fall morning. High
pressure will continue to build in through early week, allowing
pleasant weather for early October. Given forecast clear skies
and lows in the 30s and 40s Tuesday night, patchy frost is to be
expected in outer lying areas, particularly across central
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Southerly flow will return
for the second half of the week as the surface high pressure
departs, bringing above normal temepratures and a few precip
chances back into the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Strong south-southwesterly 25-35kt gusts will continue through
the remainder of the daylight hours today. Winds will decrease
and shift to the northwest this evening as a cold front moves
through the region. Wind gusts are expected to fall off after
midnight with sustained NW winds aob 10kts through the
remainder of the TAF. We will need to monitor the potential for
additional SHRA/TSRA development this afternoon and evening.
I have maintained the PROB30s with a slight tweak to the timing
to match trends in hires guidance. It is possible that we will
need to include a mention of thunder to other sites, but kept TS
in at EAU where confidence is highest. VFR conditions through
the period, but there is potential for MVFR vsby with heavier
SHRA this evening for RNH/EAU.
KMSP... Recent radar trends have a secondary line of -SHRA
approaching the Twin Cities metro, but it has been on a downward
trend over the last hour. The best chances for additional SHRA
will be in the 20-24Z time frame. There is a window between
22-24Z that will TS development to the southeast of the
terminal. This may require the additional of VCTS once
confidence increases. We will monitor and AMD if necessary.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind S 5-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind S 10-15kts.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 0330 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2025
Record highest lows/highs today:
SUN
MSP 63/88
STC 58/89
EAU 64/84
Observed lows/highs for Saturday
MSP     72/91 Record highest low/high
STC     67/90 Record highest low/high
EAU     64/88 Record highest high
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...BPH
CLIMATE...WFO MPX

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion