Geneseo, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

523
FXUS63 KICT 040739
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
239 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and mild through Saturday; rain chances return Sunday night
  into early next week
- Below normal temperatures arrive early next week; warming
  trend late next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
As of 230 AM Saturday morning, an expansive midlevel ridge remains
across the eastern half of the CONUS with a deep, trough across the
western states. This pattern continues to produce cyclonic midlevel
flow across the High Plains with a deepening surface trough from the
northern Plains through the central High Plains. An initial
shortwave trough, currently across southern NV, will advance across
the central Rockies later today. This will further strengthen the
surface pressure gradient and the low-level wind profile. Latest
short term guidance has shifted the strongest low-level wind
profile slightly further west this afternoon with the strongest
profiles across northwest KS. That being said, a 45-50 mph LLJ
remains across portions of central KS and as boundary layer
mixing deepens by mid-morning, wind gusts in excess of 40 mph
are possible through midday. As the LLJ weakens/shifts westward
as the day progresses, wind gusts should decrease to 25-35 mph
throughout the afternoon. Again, the strongest gusts will remain
across the central KS. The LLJ will once again strengthen
across central/western KS tonight with speeds between 50-60
mph. Minimal boundary layer decoupling is expected, especially
across central KS, and may allow for surface wind gusts in
excess of 40 mph overnight.
By Sunday, the surface trough axis will extend from southwest KS
into north central KS. A few thunderstorms are appearing likely
Sunday afternoon and evening along the front across portions of
central KS as surface convergence and midlevel divergence increases
across the frontal zone. ECMWF and GFS forecast soundings reveal
modest lapse rate profiles (7-8 C/km) with veering and acceleration
of the vertical wind profile (30-40 kt of effective shear). As such,
a strong or severe storm cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon and
evening.
The frontal zone will slowly move across the forecast area Monday
into Tuesday, setting the stage for additional shower and
thunderstorm chances (30-50%). Temperatures behind the front will be
much cooler with highs in the 60s and 70s. Surface ridging will
settle into the area by mid-week with seasonable temperatures and
light winds. Midlevel ridging will build across the central/southern
Plains for the second half of the week, which will likely result in
a warming trends with temperatures nearing 80 degrees once
again.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
LLWS conditions will continue at RSL/GBD/SLN/HUT as a 45-50 kt
LLJ near 1.5 kft remains overhead. These conditions will subside
by mid-morning as the LLJ weakens. South winds will increase by
mid-morning with gusts up to 30-35 kt with the strongest across
central KS. These strong winds will persist through the end of
the period across central KS as wind speeds decrease to 10-15 kt
elsewhere.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion