Gantt, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

200
FXUS64 KMOB 281820
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
120 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
0928.12Z upper air maps show an upper trof of low pressure at high
altitudes positioned over the eastern U.S. with a dry northwest flow
established over the local area. Within the trof axis, Tropical
Storm Imelda lifts northward over the northwest Bahamas through
Monday. The upper trof looks to remain in place into the early
half of the upcoming week which favors a dry northwest flow over
the local area as we open up the new week. Within the trof axis
and large weakness in the upper level height field over the
western Atlantic, Major Hurricane Humberto recurves over the
western Atlantic and Imelda is favored to take a hard right turn
off the southeast coast Tuesday and move out over the western
Atlantic during the middle of the week.
A western spoke of the east coast trof pivots southwest mid to late
week and becomes aligned anywhere from the Lower MS River
Valley/east TX to the northern FL Peninsula. With a low
level/surface ridge of high pressure in place to our north and
northeast allowing for some recovery in moisture levels within
the evolving easterlies, small rain chances return primarily along
the southern third of the area. Saturday/Sunday could see a
gradual increase in rain chances as the local area may become
influenced by a more unsettled flow with a southern stream trof
positioned over or to the west of the local area. Confidence is
low on this as this is several days out.
Highs will be mostly in the upper 80`s to around 90 through Tuesday,
then trend downward to the upper 70`s/lower 80`s by Friday.
Saturday/Sunday sees highs from 80 to 85. Lows through Wednesday
night range from the mid 60`s inland to near 70 at the coast, then
trend cooler with lows for Thursday night and Friday night
ranging from the upper 50`s/lower 60`s well inland to the
mid/upper 60`s coast. A low risk of rip currents continues through
Wednesday, then a moderate risk follows for Thursday, potentially
becoming high Thursday night and Friday. /10
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions will prevail across the region through noon Monday.
/22
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
A light to occasionally moderate offshore flow prevails through
Wednesday. The pressure difference between a high pressure system
over the eastern U.S. and a trough of low pressure draped over the
central Gulf late in the week results in a moderate to strong
easterly component in the winds Thursday and Friday. With the
easterly fetch becoming more established, seas are favored to build
Thursday, trending much higher by Friday. A small chance of
showers/storms out 20 NM and chance PoPs beyond 20NM through the
upcoming week. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      68  90  67  89  69  88  66  86 /   0   0   0  10   0  20  10  20
Pensacola   72  89  70  87  71  86  69  85 /   0   0   0  10   0  10  10  20
Destin      72  88  71  86  71  85  69  84 /   0  10  10  10   0  10  10  10
Evergreen   65  90  65  89  65  87  63  86 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0  10
Waynesboro  65  89  64  88  67  87  64  84 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0  10
Camden      65  89  65  87  66  86  63  83 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0   0
Crestview   66  89  65  87  65  86  63  84 /   0  10   0  10   0  10   0  10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion