Funkley, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

735
FXUS63 KFGF 262347
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
647 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chance of thunderstorms along the international border this
  evening.
- Fire weather potential increases through next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
The cold front is progressing eastward and light returns on
radar associated with mid/high level clouds along the frontal
zone are likely just virga as there remains a deep dry mixed
layer. Winds are shifting to the northwest, with highest post
frontal winds 25-35 mph. There is still a signal for high based
showers in our northeast CWA (far northwest MN) along with just
enough instability to monitor for dry lightning impacts. Minor
adjustments were made to near term trends.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...Synopsis...
Surface analysis this afternoon shows a cold front stretching
from Willow City down through west of Bismarck, progressing
eastward this afternoon. As this front progresses eastward,
forcing may be enough to generate showers and a few
thunderstorms this evening and overnight, particularly closer to
the international border. Instability is largely boundary-layer
based so organized convection is unlikely to develop.
Additionally, mid-level moisture content is very poor so it is
more likely than not we will see virga instead of showers and
thunderstorms. Regardless, impacts will be fairly minor and
mainly tied to lightning along the international border.
Large scale ridging will linger through next week, giving above
normal temperatures and increasing risk for fire weather
conditions to develop.
...FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
With the aforementioned above normal temperatures through next
week combined with elevated flow aloft, the potential for fire
weather to become more of an impact is increasing. While it is
still early in the season, indicated by high HRB, ERC values are
beginning to rise but remaining mostly below the 60th
percentile. Dry weather will continue to linger for the period
with wetting rain very unlikely, so expect multiple days of low
relative humidity in the 20s and 30s through mid-week.
Generally, the bulk of ensemble guidance has the reasonable
worst case scenario for relative humidity in the mid-20s,
particularly Saturday and Sunday at this time (although this
could extend through next week as higher resolution CAMs start
entering the NBM). Expect at least mid 30s to develop with some
spots getting into the mid 20s this weekend.
While the signal for lower relative humidity is strong, there
isn`t a particularly strong signal for wind speeds to reach
critical criteria at this time. For this reason, the probability
for red flag conditions to develop is very low.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period across
eastern ND and northwest MN, with a very dry/well mixed air mass
in place. A southerly orientated LLJ ahead of an approaching
cold front is bringing gusty southerly winds, and behind the
front winds turn to the northwest and another northwest
orientated LLJ (30-45kt) progresses across the region behind it.
The result in periods of gusty surface winds and low level wind
shear through the evening and early overnight period.
Prevailing winds eventually drop below 12kt for most locations
as the LLJ shifts east and surface high builds into the Dakotas.
Winds may remain gusty during the daytime period (gusts to
15-20kt) Saturday across parts of northeast ND before eventually
decreasing near sunset.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...DJR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion