Frederick, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

899
FXUS64 KOUN 040511
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1211 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1210 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
- Warm and dry conditions to persist through Sunday afternoon.
- Rain returns to the forecast
- Cold front brings the rain and cooler temps
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Overnight, persistence remains the best forecast. Only a few
clouds remain across the south plains, with clear skies being the
rule. 500 mb high pressure ridge is centered across central
Oklahoma, keeping skies clear for now, and also keeping wind
speeds generally light.
By Saturday afternoon, this ridge will ever so slowly begin to
break down, allowing for more westerly winds (at 500mb) to cross
the Rocky Mountains. This will help strengthen the lee trough
slightly, but just enough to cause the winds over Oklahoma and
western north Texas to increase. Southeast to south winds will
increase around Noon to 15 to 25 mph across much of the area. Warm
and breezy conditions will be the rule for the rest of the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Saturday night and Sunday will be more of the same. Southerly
winds will remain between 10-20 mph, with a few higher gusts.
Temperatures will be right where they have been for the past few
days. Low-mid 60s for the mornings, mid to upper 80s for the
afternoons.
While the weather won`t be changing much during this period, the
features that will change our weather will be approaching from the
north. Currently, there is a fairly strong cold front in western
Canada making its way to the south. Overnight tonight and through
Sunday, this front will make it into the northern plains.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Early Monday, the cold front will begin to move south, increasing
rain and thunderstorm chances across the northern and northwest
portions of Oklahoma. Rain and thunderstorms are not guaranteed,
but the probabilities begin to rise early Monday before maximizing
Monday evening and Tuesday morning. Temperatures will drop as
well, with afternoon highs on Tuesday and Wednesday struggling to
get to 80 degrees.
While the cold front will bring some rainfall and cooler
temperatures to the area, the same front will begin to turn north
as a warm front by the end of the week, putting us right back
where we started.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
LLWS remains the main concern through early Saturday morning at
KWWR. Then, as an upper trough approaches the central Rockies and
the surface pressure gradient tightens, southerly winds increase.
Gusts up to 25 mph are possible for most terminals, except KDUA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  64  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         91  64  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  90  64  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           89  63  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     90  64  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         89  61  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...01

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion