Forsyth, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

242
FXUS65 KBYZ 280901
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
301 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Much above average temperatures through Thursday.
- 20-40% precipitation chances Tuesday across the lower
  elevations.
- Pattern change expected Friday into the weekend with a change to
  cooler and wetter conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday...
Upper level ridging will keep conditions warm and mostly dry
through Monday. Flow will gradually become more southwesterly
today into Monday and allow monsoonal moisture (PWATs around
160-180% of normal) over the west. This will bring a low chance
(10-25%) of showers and weak thunderstorms over the
Absaroka/Beartooth mountains this afternoon and evening and a
slightly better chance (20-40%) Monday afternoon and evening.
Tuesday into Wednesday will see the ridge breaking down and a
shortwave moving through the flow, bringing gradually cooling
temperatures and a 20-50% chance (highest over the mountains) of
showers for locations from Miles City west Tuesday afternoon into
early Wednesday morning. A few weak thunderstorms will be possible
(10-20% chance) during Tuesday afternoon and evening. Outside of
the mountains, any accumulations are expected to be light, with a
less than 20% chance of more than 0.1".
Late Wednesday into Thursday, brief ridging will allow for dry
conditions to return. Then, into the weekend, a Pacific trough
will gradually move east into the region. At this time, models
still disagree on the strength and exact timing of this system.
There is high confidence in cooler temperatures and a daily chance
for precipitation through the weekend, but there is low
confidence in if temperatures will be near or below normal and in
how much precip may fall. With the cooler temperatures, the
mountains will see some snow, although the amount remain
uncertain.
High temperatures will be generally in the 80s today through
Tuesday. Then, as the ridge breaks down, highs Wednesday will be
in the mid 70s to low 80s. Under brief ridging, highs may then be
a few degrees warmer Thursday before the next system and cooling
trend moves in. At this time, highs are expected to be in the
upper 50s to mid 60s by the weekend. Archer
.AVIATION...
06z Discussion...
Slant range visibility will be reduced due to wildfire smoke,
however, slow improvement in visibility will continue. VFR
conditions with light and variable winds will continue for the
entire forecast period except for some drainage winds early this
morning. KBIL could see winds around 10kts out of the SW between
6-12z with KLVM seeing gusts potentially up to 25kts out of the SW
during the same time frame. Isolated mountain obscuration due to
wildfire smoke and some SHRA is possible. WMR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 053/083 056/084 055/080 053/080 051/068 046/062
    0/U 00/U    01/B    20/U    00/U    23/W    33/W
LVM 083 050/081 049/077 044/075 045/075 043/064 037/057
    0/U 11/U    12/W    21/B    12/W    44/W    44/W
HDN 086 050/085 052/086 052/080 048/083 049/070 043/065
    0/K 00/U    00/B    40/U    00/U    32/W    42/W
MLS 086 053/087 055/088 056/083 052/084 052/074 047/066
    0/K 00/U    00/U    20/U    00/U    21/B    32/W
4BQ 086 055/086 058/086 056/080 053/083 053/073 046/065
    0/U 00/U    00/U    20/U    00/U    11/B    32/W
BHK 087 051/086 055/088 052/080 050/083 050/074 044/067
    0/K 00/U    00/U    10/U    00/U    11/B    31/B
SHR 085 050/083 049/083 048/078 046/082 046/070 039/064
    1/B 11/U    01/B    30/U    00/U    13/W    43/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings

NWS BYZ Office Area Forecast Discussion