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Forest Lake South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

658
FXUS62 KCAE 070003
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 803 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS... Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected early this week with ridging in place. The next decent chance of rain comes mid-week as a cold front moves through the forecast area, followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler and dry air to end the week.

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Key message(s):

- Slightly above normal temperatures overnight.

The last of the showers are currently moving out of the area as an inverted surface trough pivots west of the region. This has also ushered in drier air for the time being. Another surface trough is anticipated to pivot across the area again tomorrow, which should usher in another round of early morning stratus to the area due to resurgent low level moisture. There is potential for some fog as well. However, a low-level jet is expected to develop, which would help to limit the amount of fog in the early morning. With the cloud cover tonight, lows are likely to be a little above normal.

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.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s):

- Continued warm with above normal temperatures. - Mostly dry on Tuesday. - Cold front moving through the region on Wednesday.

Area will be between systems on Tuesday, with weak surface high and westerly flow aloft keeping majority of the day dry. With partly cloudy skies forecast, above normal temperatures are expected with afternoon highs reaching the middle 80s. With a weak onshore flow still possible, a few light showers could develop along the coastal plain, but if they hold together moving into the eastern Midlands during the afternoon, any rain would be brief and light. Kept a dry forecast on tap for now across the entire forecast area. Above normal temperatures continue for Tuesday night as weak warm advection starts, along with some increase in cloud cover ahead of the next system.

For Wednesday, this is the day that change begins to happen. Upper trough axis will be pushing towards the region from the Great Lakes. This will push the upper ridge further off to our southwest, while at the surface it will be driving a cold front into the area through the day. Moisture does increase in advance of the front, and latest guidance does indicate at least some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and into the overnight hours. Instability is not great, and best dynamics are north of the area, so do not expect any severe storms. One more warm day ahead of the front is expected, with highs in the middle 80s once again. The front moves through Wednesday night, pushing south and east. This will begin to usher in a colder airmass during the overnight hours. Lows will range from the middle 50s in the Pee Dee, to around 60 in the southern Midlands and CSRA.

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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key message(s):

- A mostly dry and cooler air mass settles in behind the front. - Breezy conditions Thursday and Friday.

As the front moves east by Thursday morning, there may still be a few lingering light showers to start off the day before the drier air begins pushing in. Biggest change is going to be the noticeably cooler temperatures that begin to setting in behind this front. Surface high pressure will be moving in from the north, with a low- level wedge pattern beginning to set up into the end of the week. This is going to bring a good amount of cold advection, keeping afternoon high temperatures rather cool with readings only up around 70 degrees. Add in a breeze through the day, and that Autumn feeling will finally be in the air. Friday will see the development of an area of low pressure off the southeastern coast along the stalled out cold front. This will push some moisture along the coast, and possibly a few showers across the far eastern counties as it gets better organized. The tighter pressure gradient will keep winds and gusts up some through the day once again, and afternoon temperatures will only reach to around 70 degrees. For both Thursday and Friday, it will be somewhat gusty, and can not rule out the need for a Lake Wind Advisory. However a northeasterly wind fetch across the lakes is not always as conducive for stronger wind gusts. Would be more concerned if winds were more west to northwesterly. So for now, no Lake Wind Advisory expected, but will watch model trends. As we move into the weekend, the surface low along the coast will be tracking northward and away from the area. Should see more sunshine, and with it a slight moderation in temperatures, along with lower winds.

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.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions persist before ceiling/visibility restrictions are expected Tuesday morning. VFR conditions likely return by Tuesday afternoon.

VFR conditions are seen this evening as shower activity associated with the inverted surface trough wanes, though some FEW to SCT mid level cloud cover remains. The remainder of the evening and into the overnight should see light winds out of the east generally as a 20-25 kt LLJ develops after 03-06z. Winds remaining elevated should generally preclude a greater fog risk after 07-09z, though guidance does hint a couple spots may see winds become nearly calm. The recent HRRR run and NBM guidance continue to show stratus and associated IFR restrictions at the TAF sites after 09z as onshore flow keeps bountiful low level moisture in place. Some areas of fog will be possible, but I believe stratus and ceiling restrictions will be the greater risk. These ceilings should gradually improve after 14-15z toward MVFR as winds pick up at 4-6 kts out of the southeast. VFR conditions are then expected to return after 17-19z as deeper mixing occurs. A couple more spotty showers are possible tomorrow afternoon and toward the end of the period in the onshore flow regime, but confidence is too low to add mention in the TAF at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture remains in place ahead of a cold front Wednesday, keeping potential for morning restrictions. This front looks to also bring rain chances back to the area Wednesday afternoon before drier air moves in behind it for the late week.

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.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None.

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NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion

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