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Folsom, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

668
FXUS61 KPBZ 031653
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1253 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains dominant through Monday, leading to continued dry weather and warm temperatures. The next chance of a wetting rainfall arrives Tuesday into Wednesday.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather continues, with above-normal afternoon highs and near-normal overnight lows -------------------------------------------------------------

The pattern is being dominated by expansive upper ridging across the Mississippi Valley into the eastern CONUS. Surface high pressure edging off of the New Jersey coast is inducing southerly low- level flow, leading to an increase in temperature and dewpoints while maintaining a mostly sunny sky. Afternoon highs will reach into the upper 70s to near 80F in some locations.

Tonight, the dry and quiet pattern continues. Mostly clear skies and increased surface moisture will allow better conditions for near-dawn river valley fog. Overnight lows will end up seasonably cool.

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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Continued dry weather under high pressure - High temperatures reach 10 to 15 degrees above normal while nighttime temperatures will be just above normal ----------------------------------------------------------------

The overall pattern remains high confidence through the weekend. The upper ridge will slowly shift eastward across the Ohio Valley and the Appalachians, maintaining mostly clear skies. Daytime high temperatures will warm to values 10 to 15 degrees above climatology. Overnight lows should not be as anomalous as a dry air mass and the lack of cloud cover leads to good radiational cooling, yet values may still edge to just above normal.

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.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES:

- High confidence in dry and warm conditions Monday - Good chance of a wetting rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday - Cooler temperatures from Tuesday on, although it is uncertain exactly how much cooler values will be ----------------------------------------------------------------

Clustered ensemble guidance continues to show a high-confidence pattern for Monday, with the main ridge axis along the Eastern Seaboard during the morning. This will maintain the dry and warm pattern for one more day.

Thereafter, guidance generally agrees that a troughing pattern takes hold for the midweek period, with the mid-level system traversing the Great Lakes Tuesday/Tuesday night and reaching the northeast CONUS by Wednesday. Differences remain among the various clusters regarding depth and timing, which lends particularly uncertainty to the temperature forecast. NBM 10th to 90th percentile max temperature spreads are near or over 10 degrees from Tuesday on, with values from a bit below to a bit above normal all plausible. The current forecast will continue to mirror the ensemble means, which are near normal this time of year.

Despite the model differences, this trough still represents the next decent chance of a widespread rainfall. NBM 48-hour probabilities of half-inch or more of rain ending at 8 AM Thursday are in the 45 to 55 percent range for the Upper Ohio Valley. This will not be a drought-ending event by any means, but a welcome wetting rainfall does seem like a likely outcome. The most likely precipitation timing appears to be in the Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday morning window. Thereafter, encroaching high pressure may provide a dry end to the week.

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.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry weather will continue today as high pressure remains centered to our east. Latest ACARS soundings show a very dry boundary layer with scarcely enough moisture to support much, if any, diurnal cu development this afternoon. Movement of the surface high toward the southeast will reorient the pressure gradient leading to light south/southwest wind through sunset.

Enough of a gradient tonight will keep wind slightly elevated but still less than 5 knots. Despite a modest increase in surface moisture, fog development Saturday morning is likely to be confined to the valleys with low probability impacts to any terminal.

.OUTLOOK.... VFR conditions are expected on the whole through Mon as high pressure centered in the nern CONUS remains assertive. The exception will be during late night/early morning Sun and Mon when river-valley fog could ensue coincident with increasing boundary-layer moisture and diurnal slackening of the wind.

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.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None.

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SYNOPSIS...CL NEAR TERM...CL SHORT TERM...CL LONG TERM...CL AVIATION...MLB

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion

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