Florence, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

097
FXUS63 KGRB 262018
AFDGRB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
318 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An extended period of low-impact weather is forecast through
  next Friday. Above average temperatures are expected during this
  time, with the best chance of highs reaching or exceeding 80
  degrees occurring on Saturday and Monday.
- Patchy fog and low clouds expected late tonight into early
  Saturday.
- Patchy frost possible in north central WI late Saturday night
  into early Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Low clouds associated with a weak cold front will continue to
erode over the southern part of the forecast area late this
afternoon, and most of the cloud cover should be gone by sunset.
There is potential for some fog development tonight. Model
visibility forecasts favor fog in our southwest counties, though
surface and boundary winds are lightest and most supportive of fog
in eastern WI. The western part of the forecast area (C/NC WI)
should be more prone to low stratus development, due to boundary
layer flow increasing to 15 to 25 knots overnight. Bottom line is
that patchy fog and low clouds are expected, but widespread dense
fog is not.
A cold front will move through the forecast area on Saturday,
accompanied by a narrow band of clouds, but no precipitation.
WAA and compressional heating ahead of the front will boost highs
into the 70s and lower 80s in most areas. Gusty SW-W winds will
also occur. High pressure builds into the region in the wake of
the front, with clear skies, light winds and a dry air mass
supportive of cool overnight temperatures Saturday night. Have
lowered the blended models Min temps into the middle 30s in parts
of north central WI, where patchy frost is possible overnight into
early Sunday.
Another cold front drops south across the region Monday night,
with Canadian high pressure ridging across the region through the
rest of the week. This will result in slightly cooler, but still
above normal temperatures mid-week, and continued dry conditions
through the end of the week. Winds will pick up a bit out of the
southeast Wednesday night into Thursday, leading to possible
marine concerns (Small Craft Advisories) on Lake Michigan,
especially south of Two Rivers.
&&
.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A band of MVFR ceilings associated with a weak cold front were
impacting the southern part of the forecast area early this
afternoon, but should drop south of the ATW/MTW TAF sites within
an hour or two. Farther north, VFR stratocumulus were observed
along the Hwy 29 corridor. Much drier air and clear skies covered
far northern WI.
Expect most of the clouds to move out of the area or erode by
sunset. Models are most aggressive with fog development over
our southwest counties (central and parts of north central WI)
overnight, but with boundary layer winds increasing to 15-25 kts
there, stratus may actually be more favored. Farther east, at
least patchy fog is expected, as surface and boundary layer winds
are lighter. As a result, we have added a bit more fog at the
eastern TAF sites. The fog and stratus should erode by 13-14z/Sat.
Another cold front will move across the forecast area on
Saturday, and should pass through the western TAF sites by
16z-17z/Sat. The front will result in a wind shift to the west,
and there may also be a narrow band of stratocumulus clouds as
well.
There is a small chance of LLWS ahead of the cold front in NC WI
late tonight into early Saturday, but it looks too borderline to
include at the RHI TAF site at this point.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion