Florence, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

401
FXUS62 KILM 041741
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
141 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to our northeast will weaken Tuesday as a cold
front approaches. Mild weather will return to normal behind the
front beginning Thursday while the front itself only offers
minimal rain chances.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will remain north of the area with a weak coastal
trough lingering offshore, helping to veer the flow to become more
easterly this afternoon and evening. Isolated showers may make it to
shore at times this afternoon through tonight as showers generated
by convergence lines over the warm ocean are advected eastward by
the prevailing flow, but they will weaken as they move over the
cooler nearshore waters and especially over land, keeping this
limited threat mainly in the coastal counties. Tonight, the
continued pressure gradient between the surface high and surface
trough offshore should keep east to northeast winds going through
the night as a 15-20 kt LLJ develops, except perhaps for brief calm
periods in the far northwest zones where the gradient is weakest.
Some patchy fog may occur in those NW areas, but the continued winds
should prevent anything more than patchy fog in sheltered areas.
Aloft, an initially weak upper high is expected to strengthen over
eastern NC or just offshore, and veer the flow aloft to southerly on
Sunday, helping to boost temperatures 2-3 more degrees compared to
today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The short term will see a continuation of ridging aloft shifting
eastward while the high at the surface does the same. This will
bring a decreasing onshore flow that may raise dewpoints
incrementally but fail to lead to rain chances. Daytime highs will
be about a category above climo whereas both nighttime lows will be
closer to 10 degrees above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure retreats to the NE on Tuesday. The elevated
temperatures from the short term will continue. Any moisture
advection will be limited to the low levels while about about 3kft
the column remains bone dry. In fact as a cold front approaches this
moisture barely deepens to any guidance showing QPF should be viewed
as suspect. In partial deference to them we have POPs capped at
about 20 percent. In fact the only real local effect of the late
Wednesday FROPA should be a wind shift and a return of more
seasonable temperatures from Thursday onward.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Northeast to east flow will continue across the area with VFR
expected through the period. Similar to yesterday, there is a low
chance for a shower to briefly affect a terminal if any offshore
shower can make it to the coast through tonight or one develops
along the sea breeze through this afternoon, but any of these would
be very short-lived. Otherwise, steady winds should prevent any MVFR
mist late tonight.
Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected to prevail. May have
some patchy fog during the early morning into the first half of next
week. Low rain chances return around midweek as a cold front
approaches from the west.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Sunday... High pressure north of the waters will maintain a
steady east-northeast flow through the period with speeds holding
just below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Occasional bands of
showers will cross the waters as convergence lines move in from the
east, but they will tend to dissipate as they near and cross the
shoreline. Wave heights are expected to hold mainly in the 3-5 ft
range, except for possible 6 footers near the 20nmi boundary
southeast of Cape Fear and in the waters 15-20nmi offshore of South
Santee River. Thus, the Small Craft Advisory which expired at noon
should remain down through tonight into Sunday. However, it is
possible that 6-ft seas may return to enough of the coastal waters
from South Santee River to Murrells Inlet on Sunday afternoon that a
new SCA may be needed, but this will need to be re-evaluated
tonight.
Sunday night through Thursday... A very long easterly fetch will be
channeled into the Southeast early in the period. Wind waves
combined with easterly swell will keep conditions close to but
generally below advisory thresholds. On Tuesday the high both
weakens and starts to move east as a cold front approaches from the
west. With some swell energy still present seas will abate a bit
slowly. Wind fields weaken further on Wednesday, possibly even
collapsing to light/var as the boundary continues to approach. NE
winds return behind it Thursday as do adisory-worthy wind and waves.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore flow and rising astronomical tides
due to the full moon on Monday will bring a risk for minor tidal
flooding with each high tide cycle across the beaches and along the
Cape Fear River near downtown Wilmington at least through the first
half of the upcoming week.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ107.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...ILM

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion