Fletcher, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

292
FXUS61 KBTV 251819
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
219 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
After some much needed rainfall, some additional showers will
continue across the region tonight, with some lingering showers into
tomorrow. Drier and warmer weather return for the weekend, with high
pressure bringing a stretch of seasonable and pleasant weather to
the region next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 218 PM EDT Thursday...As expected, precipitation has once again
become more widespread across the region once again after a brief
lull earlier this morning as surface low pressure crosses the
region. Rainfall amounts have ranged anywhere from a few tenths of
an inch to over 1.5 inches of rainfall, with the St. Lawrence Valley
and portions of northern Vermont on the lower end with southern
Vermont receiving the most so far. Rainfall will gradually becoming
more showery and taper off through the evening. Some fog development
and low stratus clouds will be possible tonight with so much surface
moisture available, especially towards the pre-dawn hours.
Temperatures overnight tonight will be on the milder side with
plentiful cloud cover and showers, with lows only dropping into the
50s and low 60s.
Tomorrow will largely feature drier weather, although a few
lingering showers will be possible throughout the day. A weak cold
front will pass through the region, bringing some additional chances
for showers in the afternoon but any shower chances look largely
limited to the higher terrain and portions of the Northeast Kingdom.
High temperatures tomorrow will generally climb into the 70s, but
increased cloud cover and lingering precipitation could keep things
on the cooler side. Temperatures overnight Friday will be cooler
than the previous night, with lows dropping into 40s to lower 50s
with additional chances for fog development as high pressure shifts
toward the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 218 PM EDT Thursday...Seasonable and dry weather is expected
for the first half of the weekend as high pressure builds into the
region. Mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 60s to
low 70s will make for a pleasant late September day. Overnight lows
will be in the mid 40s to almost 60 near Lake Champlain. The latest
guidance continues to keep any chances for showers associated with a
weak coastal low south of our forecast area Saturday night, but this
potential may need to be monitored if guidance trends further north.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 218 PM EDT Thursday...A complex mid/upper lvl pattern develops
acrs the eastern CONUS by early next week, but no hazardous or
impactful wx anticipated acrs our fa. A positively mid/upper lvl
trof wl deepen acrs central/eastern Canada into the northeast CONUS,
while any tropical system wl remain well to our south. The fast west
to northwest flow aloft wl deflect any tropical moisture from
advecting into our region, while strong 1035mb high pres located
over Hudson Bay noses toward northern New England. This wl result in
a dry cold frnt moving acrs our region on Tuesday with northerly
winds helping to drop temps below normal by mid to late week. As
high pres builds overhead, so areas of frost are possible, as
progged 850mb temps drop near 0C by 12z Weds. Before the cold frnt a
period of much above normal temps are expected Sunday thru Tues,
with progged 925mb temps in the 16-18C range. These values support
highs well into the 70s with a few lower 80s possible in the warmer
valley cities. Given our location between system for most of the
long term, the probability of measurable precip for days 4 thru 7 is
very low attm. Highs by midweek/late week are in the mid 50s to mid
60s with lows upper 20s to lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...A wide range of flight conditions this
aftn from VFR at PBG/SLK and RUT to intervals of IFR at MSS with
MVFR cigs at EFK/BTV and MPV. Expecting very changeable flight
conditions through 00z this evening with intervals of IFR
vis/cigs likely in the heavier convective showers. The greatest
probability of IFR in the 60 to 70% chance is at MPV/MSS with 30
to 40% chance at EFK/SLK. As surface low pres tracks directly
overhead, wind fields should become lighter and this should
allow for additional IFR CIGS/VIS to develop in areas of
fog/mist and drizzle, especially our mountain taf sites.
However, sfc low pres will lift to our northeast by 03z and
southwest to westerly winds will redevelop across our taf sites,
resulting in more areas of stratus/mist, instead of fog and
LIFR conditions. Have kept with this idea overnight, but
confidence is low in timing and exact vis/cigs categories.
Greatest potential will be SLK/MPV/EFK with mostly VFR at PBG
due to westerly downslope. Conditions slowly improve after 12z
Friday.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion