Fleming Island, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

207
FXUS62 KJAX 052248
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
648 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding Continues this Week. Coastal
  Flood Warning: Moderate Tidal Flood impacts within the St. Johns
  River Basin, Coastal Northeast FL & Intracoastal Waterway.
  Coastal Flood Advisory: Minor Tidal Flood impacts Coastal
  Southeast GA & Nassau Co.
- Dangerous Beach & Marine Conditions through Tuesday, Likely
  Returning Late this Week and Next Weekend. High Rip Current
  Risk, High Surf & Small Craft Advisory
- Locally Heavy Rainfall & Flood Risk on Monday. Isolated
  Thunderstorms on Sunday for North Central and Coastal Northeast
  FL. Localized Flood Risk on Monday at Coastal & Normally Flood
  Prone, Low-lying Locations
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
No changes to ongoing forecast under current Local Nor`Easter
conditions as shower/isolated storm activity over inland areas
will fade after sunset leaving mild and humid conditions in place
with lows around 70F inland SE GA, lower 70s inland NE FL, middle
70s along the Atlantic Coast. Low level convergence in the E-NE
flow will begin to kick off scattered showers and isolated storms
over the Atlantic Coastal waters and I-95 corridor towards sunrise
Monday Morning, before they expand and become more numerous with
widely scattered embedded storms through the day on Monday as Max
temps reach into the lower 80s along the I-95 corridor and middle
80s over inland areas. Main concerns will continue to be heavy
rainfall and gusty winds up to 40 mph in strong storm activity
along with high surf and minor to moderate tidal/coastal flooding.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Mean upper ridging will remain situated to the northeast while a
cutoff low, which has begun to reopen, sits well to the west. A
southeasterly shift in the mid level flow has shifted a band of
tropical moisture northward into NE FL this afternoon. Some
forcing from a northward lifting shortwave will aid in deeper
updrafts and a few thunderstorms along I-75 and interior SE GA
through the late afternoon before exiting to the west. Some of
these storms may bring stronger winds aloft to the surface
resulting in occasional gusts up to 40 mph. Otherwise, while heavy
rains are likely given the moisture, the quick pace of showers
and isolated storms should keep flood potential limited and
nuisance flooding/ponding.
Tonight, another tongue of deeper moisture will push into the coast
as convergence enhances along the inverted trough. This will
generate another bout of coastal showers through the predawn hours,
mainly along the coast. Low temps tonight will read similar to this
morning`s observations, around the low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday night)
High pressure will remain to the northeast Monday, with weak
troughing along the coastal waters. Another day with moist onshore
flow, and quickly passing showers is expected. Could be enough
instability for a few storm inland during the afternoon. Highs
Monday in the lower to mid 80s.
The high will weaken as it moves further away to the northeast
Monday night into Tuesday, with coastal troughing dissipating.
Onshore shower are still expected, but chances will be decreasing.
Lows Monday night generally in the lower 70s. Highs Tuesday in the
middle 80s. Tuesday night is expected to be dry with lows in the
upper 60s
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through next Sunday)
A weak frontal boundary will move into the southeastern US and reach
just north of forecast area Wednesday. A largely dry day is forecast
for Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. The front will
sink into southern GA Wednesday night into Thursday. Diurnal heating
and convergence associated with the front will yield increased
chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday.
The front will move just to the south Friday into Friday night with
low on boundary over coastal waters, as high pressure builds to the
north. With high pressure ridging over inland counties, the best
chance for precipitation will be near the coast.
The area of low pressure is expected to lift to the north northeast
of the area Saturday, as front sinks further south of the area.
Except for the coast, where the moist onshore flow will brings
showers ashore, Saturday will be a largely dry day.
Temperatures will trend above normal through Thursday night, then
below through Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Shower activity continues to fade this evening and will likely be
able to hold onto the next few hours with VCSH at most terminals
with mostly lower end VFR CIGS in the 3000-4000 ft range. Rainfall
chances ramp up once again late tonight and will re-introduce a
PROB30 group for MVFR shower activity in the 08-14Z time frame,
then another PROB30 group for potential MVFR TSRA activity in the
14-20Z time frame before rainfall chances fade once again tomorrow
afternoon/evening, very close to a near repeat performance of
today except with slightly higher TSRA chances with gusty winds to
30 knots and IFR VSBYS.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions continue with elevated seas,
observed around 6-8 ft in the nearshore waters this afternoon as
onshore winds gust to 20-25 knots.
Another coastal trough will sharpen against the wedged surface
ridge tonight, continuing the onshore winds and rough seas through
Monday and Tuesday. Winds will relax as gradients loosen briefly
Wednesday. An incoming northeasterly surge will reach our waters
again Thursday night as a cold front pushes into the area. This
will likely require another round of Small Craft Advisory
headlines to end the week and likely into next weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Persistent onshore winds will continue to "trap" tides within the
St. Johns River basin, with an increasingly astronomical
influence to local tides this week due to Tuesday`s "Harvest" Full
Moon, with minor to low-end moderate tidal flooding continuing
throughout the upcoming week.
Coastal Flood Warning: includes the St. Johns River Basin,
Intracoastal Waterway (ICWW) and the northeast FL coast from
Mayport to Flagler Beach. Tidal levels will continue to crest
generally between 2 to 2.5 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW)
within the St. Johns River basin, with values around 2 feet above
MHHW and along the Atlantic coast south of Mayport and within the
ICWW. Moderate tidal flooding impacts include flooding of low-
lying roads and water surrounding some vulnerable structures.
Coastal Flood Advisory: includes coastal Nassau County and
coastal southeast GA. Water levels of 1.5 - 2 feet above MHHW
around times of high tide will mainly cause minor tidal flooding
impacts, including flooding of some boat ramps, docks, over-
topping of bulkheads and some tidal-prone roads in low-lying
areas.
This will be and extended duration coastal / tidal flood event,
as astronomical tides will not peak until the mid to late part of
the week. With brisk onshore flow continuing through Monday and
then potentially re-strengthening late next week, we can expect a
mix of Coastal Flood Advisories, Watches, Warnings to continue
into next weekend for the St. Johns River basin and possibly along
portions of coastal northeast FL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  86  68  86 /  20  50   0  10
SSI  74  82  74  83 /  40  50  10  20
JAX  73  84  72  86 /  50  80  20  30
SGJ  75  84  74  85 /  60  80  30  30
GNV  72  87  72  88 /  30  70  10  30
OCF  72  87  74  86 /  40  80  10  30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124.
High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125-138-233-
     333.
Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ125-132-137-
     138-225-233-325-333-633.
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166.
High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion