Fields Landing, California Weather Forecast Discussion

636
FXUS66 KEKA 012126
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
226 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A moderate mid period northwest swell will continue to
bring a risk for hazardous conditions to area beaches through Thursday.
Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers are expected tonight
and Thursday before winding down on Friday. Dry weather is
forecast for this weekend and early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Most of the precip today has been light and scattered
across mostly interior Mendocino, Lake and Trinity. Wavy boundary
noted on radar offshore may generate spotty light rain this
afternoon for Del Norte and Humboldt. Otherwise, CAMS and global
models are consistent with reduced precip potential tonight. South
and southwesterly upslope flow into the terrain may yield a few
hundredths or sprinkles through the night, however.
Upper trough centered offshore NW of Washington will dig southward
tonight through Thursday, eventually moving over the forecast
area Thu night into early Friday. Cold air aloft, 500mb temps
near -20C, will lead to steeper lapse rates. Greater and perhaps
deeper shower activity is expected on Thursday compared to today.
CAMS indicates the bulk of activity over the interior forced by
terrain. Spotty light precip is expected to continue into Thu
night with low level westerly flow into the terrain. Overall not
much widespread rain is anticipated, but there are few HREF
members that indicate isolated heavier amounts around the
periphery of Trinity, Mendocino and Lake.
Upper trough will progress into the Great Basin on Friday, leaving
our forecast area under drier and more stable conditions. Some
light showers in the wrap around will be possible along the eastern
periphery of southern Trinity, eastern Mendo, northern Lake and
perhaps over the Alps. Otherwise dry weather is expected Friday
through the weekend. Gusty and potentially strong northerlies are
expected for the coastal waters and coastal high terrain by Sun.
Drying offshore will yield clearer skies, especially for coastal
areas over the weekend. Fog and low clouds in the interior valleys
remain a distinct possiblility after multiple days of rain. If
skies remains clear all night, frost or freezing temperatures in
the colder valleys will be possible.
Much greater forecast uncertainty crops up early next week with
offshore wind flow diminishing. A southerly wind reversal may
develop. This would likely result in coastal stratus and fog.
Otherwise dry weather expected into mid next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(18zTAFs)...Generally, cloud cover will continue for
the region through the TAF period. As the day progresses, more
terminals will have VFR to MVFR ceilings. A weak front moving into
the North Coast will bring IFR ceilings this afternoon/evening
which are already being observed in KCEC. There still could be
some light rain today along with some lingering showers. Widespread
IFR to LIFR conditions are forecast for coastal terminals by late
this evening with MVFR ceilings more likely for inland terminals.
&&
.MARINE...Lingering showers and gusts over 20 kts continue to
dwindle behind the cold front. A mid period swell continues to
quickly build over 12 feet and return steep sea conditions to all
waters. Otherwise, winds will be mostly gentle Wednesday.
Just in time for the swell to decay on Thursday, moderate, northerly
winds will build across the area, especially in the southern waters
where near gale force conditions are most likely just downwind of
Cape Mendocino. Strong northerly winds will spread northward late on
Friday with steep short period seas in all waters heading into the
weekend. /JHW
&&
.BEACH HAZARDS...A steep, mid period northwest swell may bring
some hazardous conditions to area beaches during the day Wednesday
and Thursday. While the swell will only be around 14 feet at 14
seconds (producing a beach run up no more than about 18 feet), this
will be one of the first swells of the season. This means most area
beaches have a steeper grade that has formed over the summer, which
may make waves especially dangerous and unexpected. Take extra care
if on local beaches this week. /JHW
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...High humidity, breezy winds with periods of rain
expected into Thursday. Drier conditions with lower daytime
humidity is expected to build this weekend and persist into early
next week. Potential for locally gusty north and northeast winds
will increase over the weekend. Much more variable conditions are
probable early next week with signs of southerly wind reversal
developing for coastal areas. ERC`s increase during the weekend
into early next week but remain well below average. North OPS GACC
significant fire potential outlook remains keeps our forecast area
in the little to no risk category except along the edges with the
Sacramento Valley.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday afternoon for
     CAZ101-103-104.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ450-455-
     470-475.
&&
$$
NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.
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https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

NWS EKA Office Area Forecast Discussion