Fall River, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

546
FXUS63 KICT 031923
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
223 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend,
  with cooler readings expected for Tue into Wed.
- Strong south winds forecast for Saturday, with a few locations
  across central KS seeing gusts in the 40-50 mph range.
- Shower and storm chances will increase Sunday evening with on
  and off rain chances remaining through at least the first
  half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Currently have a sharp upper trough from the Pacific Northwest
into Central CA with upper ridging from Northern Mex through
the Southern Plains. At the surface, high pressure encompasses
the Eastern CONUS with lee troughing strengthening over the High
Plains.
Tonight into Sat, upper impulse over Central CA will migrate
east and by Sat afternoon will be tracking over the Central
Rockies. Tight pressure gradient will setup across the Plains
for Sat along with very deep mixing, especially across central
KS. Still looking for sustained speeds in the 20-30 mph range
for areas along and west of I-135 with gusts 35 to 45 mph. Some
locations across central KS, west of Highway 14, may see a few
gusts around 50 mph late Sat afternoon. For Sat night into Sun,
upper energy will continue to lift northeast and by Sun
afternoon, will be quickly lifting across the Upper Mississippi
Valley. This will allow a cold front to sag into the area and by
18z Sun is expected to stretch from eastern Nebraska into West
Central KS, with a few storms possible along the front by late
Sun afternoon. A few of these storms may affect our far
northwest counties with strong downburst winds the main threat
given decent DCAPE.
Cold front will continue to sag south on Mon and will allow
scattered showers and storms to persist through the day.
However, with the better upper dynamics well north of the
forecast area, not looking for anything too widespread. ECMWF
and GFS still agree on a more robust upper trough swinging
across Manitoba and into Ontario by Tue morning. This will bring
another surge of cooler air across the Plains and also push the
cold front further south for Tue into Wed. This will keep
slightly below normal temps in place for Tue and Wed along with
scattered rain chances. There is also good model agreement that
by the end of next week we will be getting back into a warming
trend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours across central,
south-central, and southeast Kansas.
Stout/gusty south winds will prevail today, and then again
Saturday, as low pressure deepens over the High Plains. Low-
level wind shear within 1500 ft AGL will impact HUT-SLN-RSL-GBD
TAF sites late this evening through early Saturday, due to a
45-50 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...ADK

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion