Fairlee, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

852
FXUS61 KBTV 230123
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
923 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A period of warm, somewhat humid conditions are expected this week,
alongside rain chances from a train of weak systems. Scattered to
numerous rain showers will develop this evening into Tuesday. After
a relative lull on Wednesday, rain chances will again increase on
Thursday and Friday ahead of a stronger area of low pressure. One
last system will pass through with scattered shower activity on
Sunday before large high pressure returns next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 151 PM EDT Monday...A pair of weak systems are advancing
northeastwards. Upstream, satellite depicts little spin, but there`s
enough happening dynamically that lightning activity has persisted,
even as one has lifted north of Lake Ontario. Most of this initial
activity will pass north of the St. Lawrence River. But as a weak
cold front washes out in our vicinity, an upper jet streak will
settle over Maine. A batch of rain should lift northeast during the
overnight hours into Tuesday morning associated with the second
system approaching the Ohio River Valley. The better jet dynamics,
elevated instability, and deeper moisture will allow this to produce
more substantial precipitation. The main model trend has been to
slow the progress of this feature by a few hours. Anticipate off and
on activity on Tuesday with embedded rumbles of thunder. No severe
weather is anticipated.
Dewpoints will be on the increase as southerly flow continues to
slowly build moisture across the region. 50s dewpoints over the St.
Lawrence Valley will push east into Vermont, and creep above 60
overnight for all but far eastern Vermont. So running into the 70s
this afternoon, you may begin to feel some of the humidity, and
overnight, low temperatures will likely remain in the mid 50s to mid
60s. Greater cloud cover will likely limit Tuesday highs to the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 151 PM EDT Monday...During Tuesday night, the plume of deep
moisture will race east. However, low-level moisture will linger
across the region while an upper ridge brings increased thicknesses
and low-level convergence also remains. Additionally, the inversion
layer is near or below ridge tops while Froude values are expected
to be near or less than 0.3. Tuesday night into Wednesday looks like
it could possibly be a drizzly situation. Recent NAM12 guidance in
that window suggests some elevated instability is present, but
without any forcing mechanism, drizzle seems the more probable
outcome.
With high surface moisture content, temperatures will remain fairly
steady with 50s at night creeping into the upper 60s to around 70 on
Wednesday afternoon. The time of arrival for the next system has
also trended a bit sooner. So we may not have much north flow to
cool temperatures. The most likely temperature values will likely
range between the upper 40s to upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 151 PM EDT Monday...The unsettled period of weather will
continue for the latter half of the week, with additional
chances for showers across the area. An area of low pressure
looks to trek northeastward out of the Ohio Valley, with
associated frontal boundaries bringing additional precipitation
to the region towards the end of the work week. This system
looks better than any of the more recent disturbances that have
passed through, likely bringing some beneficial rainfall. The
current NBM guidance shows about a 50% chance of the region
receiving 0.5 inches of rainfall within a 48 hour period, with a
30% chance of locations receiving 0.75 inches of rainfall
within the same period. This area low pressure will gradually
shift away from the region, with drier conditions returning this
weekend into next week as surface high pressure builds into the
region. Temperatures during this period will be a bit on the
warmer side for this time of year, with daytime highs in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Overnight lows will be quite mild Thursday
night with precipitation and cloud cover, only dropping into
the 50s to almost 60s, but the remainder of the period should be
closer to normal with temperatures dropping into the 40s to mid
50s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...Through the next six hours, VFR
conditions will continue with the exception of SLK and MSS,
where MVFR conditions will deteriorate to IFR. A weak front,
showers, with highest chances generally from 10Z through 16Z at
most sites, and light winds, will lead to a mix of MVFR and IFR
ceilings and localized and brief IFR visibilities.
Showers are currently riding along a weak front near the
International Border, with rain at MSS expected to end just
after the start of the TAF period. Additional showers will
possibly impact the corridor from from SLK to PBG between 02Z
and 04Z with little impact. The combination of rain earlier
this evening and very light wind will support IFR conditions at
MSS. While the onset is uncertain, with a TEMPO group utilized
through 06Z, the latest LAMP (localized aviation MOS program)
probabilities show greatly increasing chances of IFR ceilings
overnight; it shows an 80-90% chance of occurrence each hour
from 07Z to 13Z. At SLK confidence in IFR conditions is also
high but delayed to about 10Z; however, moist southwesterly low
level flow upslope flow could support an earlier development
IFR ceilings with some indications of onset by 08Z. Elsewhere,
lower IFR probabilities and timing beyond the first 12 hours led
to no mention at this time but prevailing IFR ceilings could
occur after 12Z at other sites.
South winds about 8-10 knots at BTV will diminish after around
06Z, joining other sites with light winds 5 knots or less
trending calm after 16Z.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer/Kutikoff

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion