Espanola, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

425
FXUS65 KABQ 281224 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
624 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 603 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
  impact New Mexico through this evening. Some storms will be
  capable of heavy rainfall but the flash flood threat is
  greatest over and below the burn scars in the Ruidoso area.
  Across south central New Mexico, gusty and erratic winds as well
  as hail will also be a concern.
- Storm coverage will decrease on Monday. Storms that do develop
  will be focused along and east of the Continental Divide. Flash
  flooding will remain a concern around Ruidoso.
- The end of the monsoon looks to be on schedule as dry and
  warmer conditions are expected Tuesday through Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 115 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The next round of convection has begun across southwest NM as the
upper level jet and associated dry slot continue to punch into
the area. These storms will continue to increase in coverage early
this morning as they shift northward across south central NM.
Some rain may again make it into the ABQ Metro for sunrise,
similar to yesterday. These storms are moving fast enough such
that most areas will pick up 0.50" or less through the morning.
Latest CAMs are suggesting that some of the heavier precipitation
will skirt around Ruidoso this morning. That said, this afternoon
may be a different story.
The upper low over SoCal will eject northeastward across AZ today,
and open into a wave over the Four Corners tonight. Ascent ahead
of the trough axis combined with this increase in moisture should
allow for numerous storms to develop this afternoon. Storms will
favor areas between the ContDvd and the east slopes of the Central
Mtn Chain. Storms will move toward the north or northeast around
10 to 20 mph. These storm motions should keep rainfall amounts in
the 0.25 to 0.75" range for most areas, but areas that see
repeated rounds of rainfall may see amounts up to 1.5 inches. What
is particularly concerning is that some hi-res models show even
higher amounts near the Ruidoso area, though mainly east of the
burn scars similar to where the rain fell yesterday. With this
being much too close for comfort, the Flash Flood Watch remains
intact through 9pm today. Storm coverage and intensity will
gradually decrease through the evening hours after sunset, though
a few light showers may persist through the overnight hours.
The trough axis will gradually shift across NM on Monday. Though
dry air will be advancing into NM behind it, there will still be
enough moisture for scattered showers along and east of the
ContDvd, though most will be focused on the Central Mtn Chain.
Another Flash Flood Watch may be needed for Ruidoso Monday
afternoon as models are showing another half inch or so of
rainfall.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 115 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Storms on Monday should follow a normal diurnal trend downward,
decreasing around sunset. There is a low to moderate chance of
low clouds and/or patchy fog developing Monday night across the
I-25 corridor north of KLVS. The drier air will continue to filter
into NM on Tuesday. A few sprinkles may still occur over the high
terrain, but the drier air appears to signify the end of the
monsoon. Ridging develops over NM on Wed and Thu with abundant
dry air remaining in place. Therefore, dry conditions will
prevail with temperatures trending upward.
Models are struggling with how the next west coast storm system
will evolve, but for now, it looks like much of the energy from
this system will pass to the north of NM. Thus, a few showers
can`t be ruled out Friday into the weekend, but by and large, it
looks like we`ll remain dry with a few afternoon breezes and
temperatures at or above early October normals.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
A line of showers and thunderstorms extending from near KSKC to
just west of KROW will continue to slide eastward through the
morning hours. Gusty winds to 30-35kt along the leading edge of
the line and MVFR cigs/vsby in rainfall can be expected. This
includes at KLVS and KROW, with less confidence that the line will
reach KTCC. Amendments may be needed at KTCC. Meanwhile, low VFR
to MVFR cigs have developed across pockets of western NM this
morning, but these should diminish by late morning. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. Storm
motions will be toward the north or northeast around 10-20kt and
storms will persist well into the evening. MVFR cigs/vsbys in
heavy rainfall will be likely. Additionally, across south central
areas, gusty winds in excess of 40kt and hail will also be a
concern with the strongest storms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 115 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with wetting
rainfall remains on tap today. Scattered storms will return on
Monday along and east of the ContDvd, though will mainly be
focused along the Central Mountain Chain. Much drier air will move
into the state Tuesday and will remain in place through the end of
the week. Temperatures will gradually climb a few degrees each day
Tuesday through Thursday before leveling off or dropping a few
degrees. Nonetheless, after below normal temps today and Monday,
at or above normal temps will be the rule thereafter. Humidity
values will lower, with many lower elevation locales dropping
below 25% during the daytime hours after Tuesday. Light afternoon
breezes may also return Friday through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  73  52  74  52 /  40  20   0   0
Dulce...........................  68  41  71  39 /  60  40  30   0
Cuba............................  68  44  68  45 /  70  50  30   0
Gallup..........................  69  42  72  43 /  40  20   0   0
El Morro........................  66  42  69  45 /  50  30  10   0
Grants..........................  68  44  72  44 /  60  40  20   0
Quemado.........................  70  42  72  45 /  30  20   5   0
Magdalena.......................  66  48  68  50 /  70  30  40   0
Datil...........................  66  44  68  45 /  50  20  30   0
Reserve.........................  73  43  77  45 /  20  10   5   0
Glenwood........................  78  49  81  50 /  20  10  10   0
Chama...........................  62  40  65  39 /  60  50  50   0
Los Alamos......................  63  48  67  49 /  70  60  50   5
Pecos...........................  64  45  67  45 /  70  60  50  10
Cerro/Questa....................  67  44  68  43 /  60  40  40   0
Red River.......................  57  37  59  36 /  60  40  50   0
Angel Fire......................  60  32  63  30 /  60  40  50   0
Taos............................  69  43  70  41 /  60  50  30   0
Mora............................  63  41  65  39 /  60  50  50   5
Espanola........................  71  49  75  47 /  60  60  30   5
Santa Fe........................  66  49  68  50 /  70  60  40   5
Santa Fe Airport................  69  47  70  47 /  70  60  30   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  72  55  73  57 /  70  50  30   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  74  53  75  55 /  70  50  20   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  76  54  77  53 /  70  50  20   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  74  55  75  55 /  70  50  10   5
Belen...........................  75  52  77  51 /  70  50  20   0
Bernalillo......................  75  54  76  53 /  70  60  20   5
Bosque Farms....................  75  52  76  50 /  70  50  20   5
Corrales........................  76  54  77  54 /  70  50  10   5
Los Lunas.......................  75  53  76  52 /  70  50  20   0
Placitas........................  70  52  71  53 /  70  50  30   5
Rio Rancho......................  75  55  76  54 /  70  60  10   5
Socorro.........................  74  55  78  55 /  70  40  30   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  65  47  68  48 /  70  50  40   5
Tijeras.........................  68  49  69  50 /  70  50  30   5
Edgewood........................  68  46  70  45 /  70  60  40   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  69  45  71  43 /  70  60  40   5
Clines Corners..................  65  46  66  45 /  70  60  40   5
Mountainair.....................  68  47  69  47 /  70  50  40   5
Gran Quivira....................  68  47  69  47 /  70  60  50   5
Carrizozo.......................  69  52  71  51 /  70  60  50   5
Ruidoso.........................  61  47  64  46 /  80  60  60  10
Capulin.........................  68  47  68  44 /  20   5  20   0
Raton...........................  70  45  72  43 /  40  20  30   0
Springer........................  70  47  73  43 /  40  30  30   0
Las Vegas.......................  63  45  68  44 /  60  50  40   5
Clayton.........................  76  54  76  51 /   5   0  10   0
Roy.............................  69  50  72  48 /  30  20  30   5
Conchas.........................  75  56  78  52 /  30  40  20   5
Santa Rosa......................  70  52  73  49 /  50  50  30  10
Tucumcari.......................  76  53  76  50 /  10  20  10   5
Clovis..........................  78  57  77  54 /  10  20  10   0
Portales........................  78  58  78  54 /  20  20  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  74  57  76  52 /  30  40  20   5
Roswell.........................  73  57  78  54 /  50  40  10   0
Picacho.........................  69  52  73  49 /  70  60  40   5
Elk.............................  67  49  71  46 /  80  50  40   0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for NMZ226.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion