155 FXUS64 KJAN 050538 AFDJANArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1238 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain chances will increase in the near term, but warm and mostly dry weather will continue to be the general theme as we go through next week.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Tonight through Tuesday: A weak area of low pressure over the northern gulf will meander northward as we finished up the weekend and move into early next week. Increased moist cyclonic flow with this feature will support light to moderate rainfall chances, particularly during times of peak heating. Because of a very precip efficient airmass in the lower levels with a deep warm cloud layer, a few locally heavy bands of rainfall can`t be ruled out, but rainfall amounts on the average are not expected to make much of a dent in the recent rainfall deficit. /EC/
Wednesday and beyond: A fast moving cold front will sink south into and through the forecast area Wednesday. This will allow for only an isolated chance of a shower or storm across the region. High pressure at the surface will quickly build southeast into the Lower Mississippi River Valley in the front`s wake. Not much of an airmass change is currently expected to accompany this frontal passage, as only a slightly drier air will advect into the region. Still, less humid conditions will exist as highs hover in the 80s and lows generally fall into the 60s Thursday and Friday. /19/
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.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
VFR conditions prevail for the first half of the period, then MVFR ceilings start to move in from the south early this afternoon. A few showers are possible as well. Winds will be from the east around 11kts, with some gusts up to 20kts possible./SAS/
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 85 71 84 70 / 30 40 40 20 Meridian 84 68 83 67 / 40 50 40 10 Vicksburg 86 71 87 70 / 20 30 40 30 Hattiesburg 83 71 85 70 / 50 50 50 10 Natchez 85 69 87 70 / 30 40 40 20 Greenville 88 70 85 69 / 10 40 50 40 Greenwood 88 70 85 69 / 10 40 50 30
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.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. &&
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EC/19/SAS20
NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion