Elmwood, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

647
FXUS63 KEAX 161103
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
603 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures continue into Wednesday. Highs will
  range in the mid 80s to low 90s. There is some uncertainty
  with Wednesday high temperatures due to potential
  precipitation.
- An unsettled pattern arrives Wednesday with better chances for
  more widespread showers and storms through the end of the
  work-week. No severe anticipated.
- Much cooler, near-seasonal temperatures (upper 70s to mid 80s)
  arrive Friday into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
The synoptic pattern is defined by upper level ridging extending
from Ontario to Texas and a closed upper low situated over the
Northern Rockies. At the surface, a high pressure situated over the
northeast U.S. remains the main weather driver for our area. This
will result in weak southerly/southeasterly winds through the day.
Even though the mid to upper level ridge axis remains to our east,
above normal temperatures are anticipated to persist through today.
Highs for today will range in the upper 80s to low 90s. Multiple
chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms today starting
this morning through the afternoon. A few H500 vort maxima, in
association with the mid to upper level troughing to our northwest,
move over our area providing lift. Given the unfavorable environment
for severe weather (limited instability and shear), no severe is
anticipated. That being said, as we transition into the afternoon,
instability increases highlighted by forecasted MUCAPE values
reaching 2,000-3,000 J/kg. A few, isolated sub-severe wind gusts
will be possible as storms collapse.
Going into Wednesday, the upper level ridge is pushed farther to the
east as the closed upper low approaches from the west. Several
shortwaves within the circulation of this system provide multiple
chances for scattered to widespread storms Wednesday morning through
the afternoon. Limited instability and very weak shear will, once
again, stave off any severe threat. Also, even though multiple
rounds of showers and storms are possible, PWATs staying around
seasonal normals (1.2-1.5 inches) and recent dry conditions will
help mitigate any flooding concerns. As for temperatures Wednesday,
above-normal temperatures seem to persist (mid 80s to low 90s).
However, increased cloud coverage from potential showers and storms
could impede the effects of diurnal heating, resulting in cooler
than expected temperatures. The closed upper low pushes a cold front
through most of the area late Wednesday into Thursday. As a result,
highs for Thursday will vary from the upper 70s to upper 80s. Areas
in northwest MO will likely be in the upper 70s as the cold front
will move through those areas first. The closed upper low sticks
around from Thursday into the weekend delivering daily chances for
showers and storms as shortwave after shortwave moves through the
flow. As the cold front eventually moves through the area, much
cooler, near-seasonal temperatures will arrive Friday. Highs for
Friday into early next week will range from the upper 70s to mid
80s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR conditions to start the TAF period with weak winds anticipated
for the duration of the forecast timeframe. There will be a few low-
end chances for isolated to scattered storms this afternoon into the
evening. However, at this time confidence is low in timing and
location. Therefore, added thunderstorms to a PROB30 group.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion