Ellis Island, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

386
FXUS61 KOKX 251145
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
745 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front across the area moves northward as a warm front
early this morning as low pressure tracks up into the eastern
Great Lakes. A pre-frontal trough moves through the region this
afternoon into this evening followed by a cold frontal passage
Friday morning. Weak high pressure briefly builds into the area
Friday night into Saturday. There will be chances for showers
through early next week until stronger high pressure builds into
the area from Canada.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An upper trough remains along the eastern states as a northern
branch upper trough moves through eastern Canada. A warm front
moves north of the area early this morning with the area warm
sectored as a pre frontal trough develops. Meanwhile a weak
surface low track well to the west and north, through the
eastern Great Lakes and into southeastern Canada. While there
will be weak instability and CAPE less than 1000 J/kg isolated
thunderstorms will be possible into this evening, and with the
high moisture content brief moderate to heavy rainfall is also
possible. The threat of nuisance flooding remains into early
this evening and will be isolated as SPC HREF probability of an
inch and hour remain low. The Storm Prediction Center has the
area in a marginal risk for severe weather with damaging wind
gusts the primary threat, and an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out. However, low level lapse rates are not favorable,
with 30 to 40 kt shear, and any severe weather will likely be
isolated. With saturated soundings any stronger winds will be
with wet microbursts. The cold front moves into the region late
evening into tonight and the treat of severe weather and heavy
rainfall diminishes.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front moves east of the region early Friday morning
and any lingering showers end as weak high pressure builds into
the region into Saturday. A weak upper trough lingering along
the east coast with energy moving northward on the east side of
the trough, and weak inverted trough along the coast will bring
chances for showers back into the region Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NBM was followed with no changes.
A stalled upr trof over the Appalachians will produce chances
for shwrs Sun into Tue in a mild, humid environment. Although it
is not expected to rain the entire period, pieces of energy
embedded in the flow should act on the available moisture to
produce shwrs at times.
A strong Canadian high in the 1030s is modeled to begin
building into the area by late Tue. This would result in an
increasing nely llvl flow and a general drying of the airmass,
reducing pcpn chances and cloud cover.
Temps abv normal thru at least Mon, then falling blw normal by
Wed.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A stationary front over the area moves north as a warm front
today. A cold front moves through late tonight into Friday.
A mix of categories this morning, but main consensus is IFR or
MVFR conditions. Expectation for IFR or low-end MVFR to persist
much of the day. On and off showers expected today, though there
may be several hours with little or no showers mid-morning into
the early afternoon. Additional round of SHRA and possible TSRA
expected later afternoon into early evening. Best chance for
TSRA is 20Z-02Z for the NYC terminals. Any improvement in
categories likely drops back down to IFR or lower tonight.
Improvement to MVFR and VFR expected after the Friday morning
push.
Wind expected to turn S with warm frontal passage this morning
around 10 kt. A few gusts to 20 kt are possible today,
especially for KJFK. Wind becomes SW and then eventually W
overnight and into Friday morning at around 10 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible today with changing categories likely due to
on and off showers or presence of any TSRA. Changing of
categories and TSRA timing may be off by +/- 1-2 hours
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: MVFR or IFR early becoming VFR.
Friday and Saturday: VFR.
Sunday and Monday: Chance of showers with MVFR conditions possible,
mainly at the NYC metro and Long Island terminals.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front today will
likely allow ocean seas to build to around 5 feet by this
evening, and mainly east of Fire Island Inlet. With the passage
of the cold front Friday morning seas will subside. Issued a SCA
east of Fire Island from 800 PM EDT tonight to 800 AM EDT
Friday. Winds and seas then remain below advisory levels Friday
through Monday. Monday night ocean seas may build to SCA levels
as swells increase and remain into Tuesday night. In addition,
wind gusts will be marginally at SCA levels on the ocean waters
Monday night into Tuesday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and a few thunderstorms are capable of producing
widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches, with locally higher amounts
today into this evening. With the potential of brief moderate
to heavy rainfall, expect brief nuisance flooding in urban and
poor drainage areas. Antecedent conditions have been notably dry
though, so the risk for flash flooding is low.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high rip current risk through this evening due to
swell and southerly winds. The high risk may remain into early
Friday morning at the southeastern Suffolk beaches, however,
overall a moderate risk is likely for Friday as swells subside.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion