Ellendale, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

520
FXUS63 KBIS 270533
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1233 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures continue through the middle of next
  week, with mostly dry conditions expected through this
  weekend. Low chances of rain return by the middle of next
  week.
- Breezy conditions on and off through next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
The forecast remains on track.
UPDATE
Issued at 920 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
The cold front has progressed through the county warning area
into South Dakota. Windy conditions have subsided, thus no
updates are needed at this time as the forecast remains on
track.
UPDATE
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A cold front continues to progress across the south central
North Dakota in to the James River Valley. A brief period of
windy conditions will follow the frontal passage with winds
forecast to subside this evening. No updates are needed at this
time as the forecast remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Currently a shortwave trough is moving east through Montana.
Upstream from the shortwave, a quasi-zonal pattern is moving on
shore. Embedded on the trough axis is a cold front. At the
surface the cold front is located from southwest North Dakota,
to north central North Dakota, and moving southeast. On the
northern fringe of the front light returns on radar are present,
mostly along and north of the International Border. As the
front passes, winds have been turning to the northwest and
gusting up to 35mph. Once the front passes winds will remain
northwest but calm to around 20mph. After sunset, winds should
calm. Lows tonight in the post frontal cooling, will be cooler
in the 40s. Saturday will be breezy again as the pressure
gradient tightens between a high pressure moving through South
Dakota overnight, and a low sitting in Wyoming.
Through the weekend the Northern Plains will be in a broad
ridging pattern with an upper high over the Central Plains. So
the weather will continue to be above average warm, and quiet
weather through Monday. After Monday the upper level flow
switches to the south or southwest through the rest of next
week. This will lead to chances for rain starting Tuesday. So
far, there is little to no chances for thunderstorms with this, but
high temperatures will stay in the 70s and 80s. The pressure
gradient from various lows will create breezy winds on and off next
week. Tuesday looks like the highest wind in the central and east,
but a Wind Advisory will likely not be needed. The NBM has a large
temperature range for late next week, but the trend is a slight
cooling signal down to the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Telken

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion