Elfin Cove, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

427
FXAK67 PAJK 011142
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
342 AM AKDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SHORT TERM.../Through Tonight/...Continued generally benign
weather is in store through the period for Southeast Alaska
through the period. The majority of the region continues to be
under high pressure ridging & a relatively relaxed pressure
gradient, keeping SFC winds relatively on the lighter side for the
Panhandle into tonight. A strong low pressure center that is
poised just to the west of Vancouver Island, BC, & a weak wave
rotating around it will continue to spread a cloud shield & a
slight chances of rain into the southern Panhandle through this
evening. The next frontal system starts pushing into the eastern
Gulf of Alaska & into the Yakutat area late tonight. That system
will primarily be a rain-maker & is not anticipated to bring a
major wind threat to the region. The low is expected to weaken as
it approaches & pushes thorough Southeast Alaska. Notably, along
with the clear skies & light winds, we have some areas of fog into
this morning.
.LONG TERM.../Thursday through the weekend/...The long term
forecast starts off with a return to form for SE AK - which is to
say a front moving into the panhandle. The track of its parent
low, which dives NW out of the interior, would during winter
normally herald the arrival of a snow producing system. Given that
this is only early October, anticipate it be primarily a rain
event for most locations, although snow levels dropping down to
3,500-4,500ft will open up the opportunity for the termination
dust line to likely continue to work down the mountainside. The
possibility of snow mixing down to White Pass is possible and
could result in a dusting to minor accumulations for this area
especially during heavier periods of precipitation Thursday into
Friday. Everywhere below 3,000ft is expected to continue to see
rain. Headed into the weekend, high pressure returns across the
Gulf, though the positioning of the ridge could result in some
moderate onshore flow, bringing with it some lingering cloud
cover and shower chances. Long term guidance points towards a near
normal trend for this time of the year. Although places to the
north will likely see a higher potential for above normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation. While farther to the
south, there is a greater chance for near normal temperatures but
potentially below normal precipitation for the next one to two
weeks.
&&
.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Thursday/...Quiet weather overnight will
continue into the daytime Wednesday. Only snags will be patchy
low level stratus and fog that has sprung up in the inner channels
primarily north of Frederick Sound, as well as around Yakutat,
due to the lack of high cloud cover. While some will frost out,
more stubborn pockets should last at most through mid morning
before thinning out and dissipating soon after sunrise. No LLWS
for the forecast period. Conditions will deteriorate from west to
east starting early Thursday as a system moves through the
northern gulf bringing rain and increased winds aloft shifting out
of the southeast.
&&
.MARINE...
Eastern Gulf of Alaska: Up to around 25 kt northwesterly "Small
Craft Advisory" winds are expected associated with the ridge that
is in place through today with highest magnitudes for the southern
2/3 of the Eastern Gulf. Significant wave heights up to 13 ft are
anticipated, today. Winds & seas will diminish a bit as the
pressure gradient relaxes and the ridge breaks down this afternoon
into tonight out ahead of our next frontal system approaching the
region from the west. As it approaches & pushes through from late
tonight into Friday, expect winds to increase up to around 25-30
kt out of the southwest over the majority of the Eastern Gulf
region & significant wave heights to increase up to around 11 ft
for that same area. After that, expect another ridge to build-in,
giving us a bit of a break into the weekend.
Southeast Alaskan Inner Channels: Northwesterly winds up to
around 15 to 20 kt & seas of up to around 3 to 4 ft are expected
into this morning, diminishing to between 5 & 10 kt with seas of
around 2 ft or less through much of the night as the pressure
gradient relaxes as the ridge that is currently in place over our
area breaks down ahead of a new frontal system that will be
approaching & moving through the region starting early Thursday
morning into Friday. Expect winds to pick up out of the southeast
to around 20 to 25 kt for the late Thursday afternoon through
early Friday morning timeframe with seas up to around 4 to 5 ft.
Waves will be higher near ocean entrances. After that, expect another
ridge to build-in, giving us a bit of a break into the weekend.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-652-661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...JLC
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NWS AJK Office Area Forecast Discussion