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Elfin Cove, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

276
FXAK67 PAJK 021423
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 623 AM AKDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.SHORT TERM...A low pressure system over Cook Inlet and associated front extending southwest over Kodiak Island will move eastward towards the panhandle throughout the day Thursday. An embedded shortwave trough will help drive this front eastward through the panhandle as well as further enhance winds in the eastern and southern gulf as the gradient tightens over the area. Yakutat has already begun to see the impacts of this weather system with overcast cloud cover and light to occasionally moderate rain. These conditions will spread from northwest to southeast across the panhandle through the afternoon and evening hours Thursday. With snow levels between 3000 and 4000 ft from the Icy Strait Corridor northward, termination dust lines will likely be seen inching closer to sea level as precipitation moves into the area. For the far northern panhandle, upper parts of the Klondike Highway near White Pass could see some snow mixing down to the surface during heavier rates, with minor accumulations. The likeliest timing for this to occur would be later Thursday into early Friday morning, as southerly surface flow starts to weaken and the front continues to erode as it pushes into the panhandle. Aside from the Klondike Highway mentioned above, communities below 3000 ft and at sea level can expect to just see cold rain. For what to expect on the back end of this system, see the long term discussion.

.LONG TERM...Friday begins just as a quick moving front moves off to the east southeast, with copious ridging behind the front. WAA from 850-500 mb will help to strengthen the ridge, with 500 mb heights reaching well above climatology for this time of year. With modest onshore flow, not expecting much clearing with the exception of around 6 hours post front, or Friday morning, but will definitely result in reduced rain chances through Saturday morning. For winds during Friday and Saturday, kept the southerly portion of the panhandle behind the front mostly westerly to 10 knots at a maximum, however, many areas will see lighter winds. The northern end of the panhandle have a much higher likelihood (60% chance) to see wind speeds from the south exceed 15 knots for longer, mostly driven by leeside troughing from westerly wind aloft moving over the Coast Mountains and troughing in the interior of Canada. Chances diminish into the evening hours of Friday before picking up again Sunday.

Sunday enters the uncertain portion of the forecast, as ensemble guidance has the highest spread regarding how fast a new upper trough will break down the currently set ridge during this time range. The main source of uncertainty is actually in regards to a strong low moving into the Bering Sea, which will have downstream implications for breaking down the ridge. A weaker system will keep a more progressive forecast, bringing more rain faster into the panhandle proper, with a stronger system deepening the trough, strengthening the downstream ridge, and keeping rain over Yakutat longer. Therefore, there are wide gates over Yakutat for how much rain to expect, with a higher likelihood (50%) between 1.5 and 3.5 inches in 48 hours, but lower chances (less than 15%) of exceeding 5 inches in the same duration.

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.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Friday/...Some areas in the southern half of the Panhandle like PAPG, PAWG, & PAKW are experiencing some radiation FG, reducing them into the LIFR category, this morning, as they have been under mostly clear skies with light winds. It should thin-out before late morning. A frontal system has currently begun its push into the Panhandle. PAYA, in the NE gulf coast area is already seeing rain with MVFR conditions. This is expected to last through the period. Expect those conditions to progressively spread across the rest of the Panhandle from NW to SE through this evening. Southeasterly to southerly SFC winds will get rather gusty, particularly for the northern half of the Panhandle as the front approaches today through this evening. Southerly LLWS magnitudes of up to around 35 kt centered up at around 2 kft are also anticipated today into tonight for the same region.

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.MARINE... Outside: Surface winds across the gulf have begun to shift to a SW direction as the ridge over the panhandle breaks down and a front moves in from the west. Through Thursday and Thursday night, winds turn out of the S as the front progresses, with winds of 25 kt to 30 kt anticipated for most areas, and gales (35 kt) for the far northern gulf. Wave heights rebuild across the area, reaching 11-15 feet Thursday night for areas south of Cape Spencer, and 7-9 feet for areas north of Cape Spencer. Swell is currently of the S to SE, but by Thursday night, will be switching to SW.

Inside: Winds in the central and northern inner channels have flipped out of the south overnight with winds in the southern channels expected to follow suit through the day on Thursday. As of 5am, winds in N Lynn Canal near Eldred Rock have been consistently out of the south at 20 kt for the past few hours. Winds during the daytime hours on Thursday build to 15 to 20 kt, reaching 20 - 30 kt Thursday night as a front moves through. Wave heights increase on Thursday to 3-4 feet, and Thursday night up to 4 to 6 ft, with higher heights at ocean entrances and in areas with local tidal currents and influences (like Point Couverden).

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.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ318. Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ327. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031>036-053-641>644-651- 661>664-671-672.

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SHORT TERM...STJ LONG TERM...NC AVIATION...JLC MARINE...STJ

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