199 FXUS61 KLWX 151915 AFDLWXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 315 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build south from Quebec through tonight. A coastal low pressure will approach the area from the south midweek bringing beneficial rainfall. A strong cold front will cross the area next weekend.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High clouds will continue to increase tonight and become denser overnight. Rain or showers will approach St. Mary`s County toward daybreak. Winds will also increase overnight across coastal areas with gusts of 15 to 20 mph.
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Clouds will lower and thicken further on Tue with rain or showers slowly spreading further NW through the day Tuesday. Rain/showers should reach the Route 15 corridor by Tue evening.
Rain will continue off and on Tue night through Wed as coastal low gets closer to the area. The low pressure center will begin to exit the area Wed night with the rain/showers ending from west to east Wed night. Ensemble guidance suggest half to inch and half of rain may fall along and east of I-95.
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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Any lingering showers early Thursday will exit to the east as drier air pushes into the region. High pressure will build into the area Thursday midday through Friday. Temperatures on Thursday will be near average. Friday will be warmer or above average prior to a backdoor cold front that will reach the region Friday. The backdoor front should be a dry frontal passage and bringing some cooler air into the region for the weekend. The next chance for any showers would be later Sunday and mainly in the Appalachians.
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.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR cigs are expected Tue afternoon through Wed along with off and on rain/showers. Winds will also be on the increase Tue with gusts up to 25 kt.
VFR conditions Thursday through Friday night. Winds northwest becoming southwest later Thursday into Friday. Once the backdoor front pushes through Friday, winds will become northerly and light.
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.MARINE...
Winds will strengthen rapidly late tonight into Tue afternoon as pressure gradient tightens between high pressure over New England and low pressure over eastern North Carolina. The winds are expected to diminish rapidly Tue night into Wednesday. A Gale Warning has been issued for the day Tuesday.
No marine hazards Thursday through Friday night. Winds northwest Thursday through Friday. Becoming north northerly late Friday into Friday night.
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.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore winds increase through Tue afternoon as high pressure builds to the north and low pressure develops off the Southeast coast. Depending on the strength of the onshore winds, there is the potential for tidal flooding Tue night.
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.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ533-541-542. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ533-534-537- 541-543. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ534-537-543.
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SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...LFR/KLW MARINE...LFR/KLW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR
NWS lwx Office Area Forecast Discussion