East Keating, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

238
FXUS61 KCTP 271057
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
657 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Increasing clouds today with light rain most likely south of
  the Turnpike/east of I-81 this afternoon into early tonight
* Partly to mostly sunny and very warm to close out the final
  weekend of September; start of another extended dry spell
* Mild/warm start early next week before turning seasonably
  cooler with stretch of dry weather continuing into October
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GOES-19 IR satellite shows radiational fog in the north-central
valleys becoming obscured by increasing cirrus shield from the
south. Expect some locally dense fog/0.25-0.5mi vis near and
north of I80 early this morning. The fog may expand southward
through sunrise; however the increasing high to mid level cloud
cover will likely be a limiting factor.
Clouds continue to increase from the south through midday with
mostly cloudy skies expected across CPA by the afternoon. The
main challenge for later today into early tonight will be
determining how far to the north the rain (currently moving
northward into central VA) will get. Above normal/moist/upslope
east-southeast low level flow and 1-1.5" pwats over the southern
half of the forecast area (along and south of I-80) suggests
that the current 12hr precip probs may not be bullish enough
(30-60% south of the PA Turnpike/east of I81) and could be
adjusted higher by 1.5-2x. The rain is being driven to the north
ahead of an upper low pivoting east northeast from TN/AL/GA
this morning into the south central Appalachians/western
Carolinas by 28/00Z.
Hires data shows rain exiting southeast PA by 12Z Sunday as high
pressure starts to move in from the Great Lakes. Clearing from
west to east along with residual moisture and light/calm wind
will promote fog formation which may become locally dense and
significantly reduce the visibility during the predawn/post
sunrise period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AM fog will give way to partly/mostly sunny and very warm
conditions to close out the final weekend of September on
Sunday. Max temps fcst in the 75-85F range are 10 to 20 degrees
above the historical average for late September. High pressure
settling over CPA Sunday night favors more radiational fog into
early Monday morning.
Monday also will be quite warm by end of September standards
with fcst highs very close to/a few degrees cooler vs. Sunday.
High pressure continues to dominate the pattern, setting up
what should be an extended period of dry weather through next
week.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Confidence is now increasing in an extended period of dry wx
for next week. This is due to better model agreement in the
evolving blocking pattern, showing the area remaining under the
influence of high pressure both at the sfc and aloft Tue-Fri.
Backdoor cold front will allow seasonably cooler/chilly air to
filter into the area to start October as 1030+mb Canadian high
moves southeast from Hudson/James Bay into New England. This
airmass change will drop daytime max temps by 5-10F day/day Wed
& Thu and increase the risk of late night/early AM frost
particularly in the northern tier where NBM min temps are fcst
in the mid 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are present over central
Pennsylvania this morning. Patchy fog is present across a few
airfields right at daybreak, but VFR conditions are expected
after sunrise with thickening cloud cover. All sites will become
overcast by late morning into early afternoon. Winds today will
remain light becoming more southerly throughout the day.
A few showers may move into southern PA during the afternoon
and PROB30s have been added at AOO, MDT, and LNS to highlight
this potential. Confidence is low on just how far north these
showers get, with some models showing them making it all the way
to UNV. Overall confidence in measurable precipitation remains
low, and impacts from these rain showers will be minimal. The
greatest chance for flight reductions will be at MDT and LNS
where rain could persist into the late evening.
Outlook...
Sun-Tue...Low confidence in sub-VFR cigs/rain across the
southern/eastern portions of the airspace. Mainly VFR across the
central and northern two thirds of PA.
Wed-Thu...No sig wx.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...NPB
AVIATION...Bauco/Bowen

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion