Dunksburg, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

091
FXUS63 KEAX 291126
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
626 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...12z Aviation Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* No hazardous weather is expected over the next 7 days.
  - Above normal fall temps, mainly into the mid and upper 80s
  - Overall dry conditions
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Rinse and repeat... thats the name of the game lately, though
without any actual water (rain).
Local sensible weather conditions remain wholly quiet with the
influence of high pressure dominating still dominating the larger
area. The surface and mid-upper ridge axis has shifted just E/NE of
the area, with WV imagery too showing the extremely dry airmass of
late having shifting eastward some. Early this morning mid-upper WV
imagery depicts a fair air mass gradient near/along the IA/NE and
MO/KS borders. Even so, overall air mass remains dry enough and
devoid of any notable lift to produce much more than a bit widely
scattered high level cloud cover seen on GOES Nighttime Microphysics
RGB. For today, expect similar conditions to yesterday/Sunday with
light southerly winds, sunny skies, and highs into the mid-upper 80s
across the area.
For the next few days, the large scale pattern will struggle to see
much notable change over our portion of the country. This is largely
driven by pattern blocking from by Tropical Storm Imelda (former
Tropical Depression Nine) and Major Hurricane Humberto as they
operate near/along the FL/GA/SC/NC coasts and the eastern open
Atlantic respectively. A western CONUS open wave will navigate
eastward through the Intermountain West and into the
central/northern Plains by mid-week, but deterministic and ensemble
guidance predominantly depict it being deflected NW/N of the area
due to said blocking. And while there will be some lift reaching the
area, the lingering dry air mass appears well poised to severely
limit any notable or appreciable precipitation opportunities through
mid-week. This limits impacts to cloud cover, and by virtue
potential for temperatures to be a couple degrees cooler (if more
cloud cover) or remain similar to recent days (if limited cloud
cover). So, expect continued dry conditions, light winds, and
temperatures at least into the mid 80s through the middle of the
week.
Looking toward late week and into the weekend, departures of Imelda
and Humberto free up the pattern to some potential change,
especially as a fairly well advertised deep western CONUS trough
(possibly cutoff) begins to dig into SW CONUS and eastward across
the Rockies. This too is where deterministic and ensemble guidance
really begin to show more substantial divergence. While they drive
the wave into/across the Plains, it is to varying degrees of
depth/strength/speed. For the time being, there is good confidence
in the seasonably warm conditions continue through the end of the
work week before this wave is able to exert more direct influence
over the area. By or at some point through the weekend, mid-upper
height falls look to occur over the area along with some attempt at
moisture return. Given antecedent conditions (dry air mass),
appreciable precipitation may remain difficult to come by unless the
wave is able to dig far enough south to more directly exert deep
lift across the area. For now, the most popular depiction is more of
a glancing blow (strongest lift displaced NW/N), keeping much of or
all of the area dry. Temperatures by this point too will be
dependent on how the wave evolves, with potential for some cooler
conditions should a frontal boundary be able to be pushed across the
area, let alone any increased or prolonged cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions to prevail across the sites through the period.
The lone exception, as usual, may be KSTJ as it is prone to
river valley fog during quiet conditions. Even so, with
abundantly dry conditions, it has struggled to sock in the last
couple nights and may be similar again tonight. Otherwise, light
southerly winds settle in during daytime, easing back to light
and variable or calm after sunset.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion