Dungannon, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

682
FXUS61 KRLX 260555
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
155 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure builds across the OH valley and WV today.
An upper level disturbance approaches from the southwest tonight,
bringing showers and storms into Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 153 AM Friday...
Areas of dense fog will gradually lift by mid morning, while areas
of low status should improve by late morning.
A positively tilted upper-level trough, extending from PA and WV
southwest across TN/KY, exits east while pushing a surface boundary
east along the eastern mountains today. Drier airmass will filter in
behind the front, while a theta-e gradient develops along the
mountains. These conditions will produce periods of sunshine across
most parts of SE OH, NE KY and most parts of WV through tonight.
However, an approaching cut-off low pressure system is expected to
move east northeast across the Gulf states, approaching the TN/KY
valley tonight. A shortwave in the northeast periphery of this
low will inject along the aforementioned theata-e gradient to
produce showers and thunderstorms over these areas. This will
keep the highest probability for precipitation across extreme SW
VA, and the eastern mountains of WV late this afternoon and tonight.
This feature could bring up to 0.25 inches of rain across these
areas through tonight. Accepted NBM solution with these
features.
Fresher airmass under light northerly flow and partly sunny skies
will allow for afternoon temperatures to reach lower 80s across the
lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s northeast mountains. With
dewpoints in the upper 50s, lows tonight are projected to be in the
upper 50s lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s northeast mountains.
Calm flow and mostly clear skies will allow for dense fog formation
mainly along river valleys tonight into Saturday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...
Additional opportunities for showers and afternoon
thunderstorms, especially along the higher terrain, will
continue into the weekend as an upper level trough comes to a
halt over the area. Activity will be driven mostly by daytime
heating, and will diminish in coverage from west to east each
evening across the lower elevations, while prevailing longer
into the overnight hours along the mountains. A slight recovery
in afternoon temperatures will return daytime highs into the low
80s in the Tri-State area amd 60s/70s along the mountains and
foothills.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...
A cut off upper level low stationed over the forecast area will
enter into a halting pattern for the start of the new week amid
tropical activity swirling around the eastern seaboard and
further out into the Atlantic Ocean. The latest global model
suite suggests landfall of one of these tropical systems off
the Georgia and South Carolina coastline sometime during the day
on Monday, with the northwestern flank of accompanying showers
and storms nosing up into the Greenbrier Valley and the
mountainous areas of the Appalachians. Off to the west, a
building ridge will supply drier weather to parts of the Ohio
Valley, which some of our western zones of the forecast area
could relish under. It will be a battle between these two
features of where the demarcation line from dry and active
weather will set up each day from Monday onward as a result.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 144 AM Friday...
Lingering low level moisture in the form of IFR/LIFR fog and low
status will continue across most terminals through 13Z. Expect
low stratus to lift into MVFR/VFR by 15-16Z Friday morning. MVFR
low status could remain longer along the higher terrain.
A shortwave approaches from the southwest today, providing some
forcing along southwest WV. Meanwhile, a surface boundary
remains roughly along the eastern mountains today. These two
features may interact to support isolated to scattered showers
more probable along the central and southern mountains. This may
include BKW, but since confidence runs low, decided to keep this
activity out of BKW TAF.
Therefore, conditions will improve to MVFR/VFR by mid/late
morning, and into widespread VFR Friday afternoon. IFR
conditions are expected again Friday night under river dense
valley fog.
Winds will be calm to light and variable through 13Z. Winds
become light with a north to northwest component afterwards.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog this morning may vary from
forecast. Timing of dense fog tonight may vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                                   FRI 09/26/25
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR is possible at night with low stratus and/or fog through the
weekend.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...ARJ

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion