Driver, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

287
FXUS61 KAKQ 230748
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
348 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides offshore today through Wednesday bringing
warmer temperatures and more humid conditions. A slow moving
cold front gradually moves into the area Thursday and Friday
bringing unsettled conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Warmer today as high pressure nudges offshore.
The current surface analysis depicts weak surface high pressure
in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Aloft, an upper ridge is
located over the subtropical western Atlantic, with a trough
over the Great Lakes, and another trough over the Mid-South.
Partly cloudy early this morning with patchy fog over SE VA and
NE NC. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 60s. The trough over
the Mid-South lifts ENE today triggering showers/tstms across
the Appalachians. A few of these tstms could drift off the Blue
Ridge into the NW Piedmont this afternoon. Coverage is expected
to be limited as the trough dampens as it runs into the ridge
offshore. However, a few strong tstms are possible. Otherwise,
partly to mostly sunny with high temperatures in the lower to
mid 80s, and dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. The wind will be
S to SW 5-10 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Chance of showers/thunderstorms return Wednesday and Thursday.
Partly cloudy, warm, and moderately humid tonight as high
pressure nudges farther offshore. Low temperatures range from
the lower to mid 60s NW, to the upper 60s SE. The upper ridge
remains anchored offshore Wednesday with WSW flow aloft locally
on the NW periphery of the upper ridge. Some energy rotates
around the top of the upper ridge. Coverage of showers/tstms is
again rather limited, but there should be more activity than
today. Rather humid for later September with high temperatures
in the lower/mid 80s NW to mid/upper 80s SE, and dewpoints in
the upper 60s/around 70F. Lingering showers are possible
Wednesday, especially across the northern tier of the area.
Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy, warm, and humid with lows in
the mid 60s to near 70F. The upper trough deepens across the
Great Lakes Thursday, with additional troughing digging into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley. This will result in some modest height
falls locally with PW values rising to 150-180% of normal (1.8
to nearly 2.0"). Given this, better coverage of showers/tstms
are expected by Thursday afternoon. Highs Thursday range from
the lower/mid 80s NW to the mid/upper 80s SE with dewpoints in
the lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Unsettled weather is likely by the end of the week.
The upper trough and an associated cold front slowly approach
from the W Thursday night into Friday. Anomalous moisture peaks
Thursday night, and elevated atmospheric moisture lingers across
SE VA and NE NC into Friday. PoPs for showers and a few
embedded tstms are likely during this time period. Locally heavy
rain is possible with the local area in a `marginal risk` for
excessive rainfall Friday. Lows Thursday night range from the
mid 60s to lower 70s, followed by highs Friday in the upper 70s
to lower 80s. A secondary upper trough lingers near the coast
Friday night into Saturday with a lingering chc of showers.
Forecast highs are in the upper 70s to around 80F with lows in
the 60s. High pressure builds N of the region later in the
weekend into early next week. Meanwhile, an upper trough lingers
over the Southeast CONUS. This will result in NE flow, but
there is plenty of uncertainty in the forecast details. For now,
high temperatures drop back into the 70s, with lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s, along with lingering NBM 15-25% PoPs.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Tuesday...
High pressure is centered in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast
as of 06z. VFR at most sites under SCT CI, with LIFR fog at
ECG. The wind is calm to very light out of the SSE. IFR/LIFR
conditions in fog are likely to linger at ECG through 12z, with
rapidly improving conditions between 12-13z. Elsewhere, brief
IFR vsby restrictions are possible at PHF in shallow ground fog
through 12z, and brief vsby restrictions are possible at ORF
from 09-11z. Primarily VFR at RIC and SBY. VFR conditions
prevail later this morning through this evening with a SSW wind
of 5-10kt (a brief shift to ENE is possible at ORF this aftn due
to the sea-breeze), and FEW-SCT aftn CU with bases ~5kft. A few
tstms are possible later this aftn, but this activity should
remain NW of RIC. Patchy fog is again possible later tonight.
There is a chc of aftn/evening showers tstms Wednesday, mainly
from RIC to SBY well in advance of a cold front. This cold front
slowly crosses the region Thursday and Friday. Showers are
likely with a few tstms possible during the aftn hours.
Occasional sub-VFR conditions are expected. A chc of showers
lingers into Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- High pressure remains in control for the next couple of days
  bringing benign marine conditions.
- High Rip risk remains in the forecast today due to swell from
  Hurricane Gabrielle.
Early morning weather analysis shows the high pressure just off
the east coast. This high is bringing benign marine conditions
as winds are light and variable this morning roughly around 5
kt. Seas this morning have continues to drop and are between 3
to 4 ft across the coastal waters and 1 to 2 ft across the bay.
Through the rest of the day, high pressure will continue to move
offshore allowing for winds to increase slightly out of the
south between 5 to 10 kt. Seas will still remain between 3 to 4
ft through the day due to the swell from hurricane Gabrielle as
it curves NE to the E of Bermuda. While across the bay seas will
again be between 1 to 2 ft. These benign marine conditions will
continue to prevail through Wednesday and early Thursday as the
high pressure remains in control over the area. Winds will be
around 10 kt with seas between 1 - 2 ft across the bay and 3 to
4 across the ocean. By Thursday, a decently strong low pressure
system is expected to form and track across the Ohio River
Valley. As, this low strengthen its pressure gradient will
potentially increase allowing for winds to increase out of the
SSE. Local wind probs of 25kt wind gusts across the ocean waters
have increased and are now between 30 to 50% across the ocean.
However, there are some concerns. The first one is there is the
potential for showers and thunderstorms during the highest
probabilities. These showers and storms are possibly leading to
a higher probability. The second issue is typically with
southerly wind the local wind probs tend to overestimate the
winds. Trends will continue to be monitored as late Thursday
into Friday is the next chance of possible SCA conditions. By
early next week There may be a period of elevated onshore flow
as Canadian high pressure builds toward the area from the
northern Great Lakes.
High rip risk continues to remain in the forecast for today due
to long period swell (3-4ft/11-12s) from Hurricane Gabrielle.
The rip risk may step down to moderate by Wednesday as swell
diminishes as Hurricane Gabrielle rapidly moves E over the
central Atlantic.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Due to continuance of NE flow this will continue to lead to
elevated tides across the CWA. These elevated tides are expected
to remain through Friday and will continue to slowly drop
through the weekend. Tidal anomalies continue to range between
1- 2 feet above normal which will allow for continued nuisance
to minor coastal flooding during the next several high tides.
Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect through Friday
afternoon`s high tide along the Ches Bay and along the SE VA/NE
NC coast. Have kept the Coastal Flood Advisories through this
afternoon for the upper James River, much of the York River, and
Worcester County given low confidence in reaching minor flood
stage with the Friday afternoon high tide, however, nuisance
flooding is still expected. By this weekend there is another
potential for additional nuisance to minor flooding.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...ERI/HET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion